Based on the research, it can be stated that the previous balance of opposition forces has changed significantly with the rise of Demokratikus Koalíció.
Demokratikus Koalíció took the lead on the left
Approaching the 2022 parliamentary elections, left-wing parties are increasingly focusing on election preparations, in which all left-liberal forces have recently sought to increase their own weight at the expense of their “allies”. Signs indicate that the biggest winner of the competition is Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party, the Demokratikus Koalíció, whose leading role within the left block has become unquestionable by now. Századvég examined how the support of left-liberal parties among voters in favour of the opposition coalition had developed over the past year and a half, and the party preferences of left-wing voters according to their self-classification.
A rising DK, a vanishing MSZP-P
In the last year and a half, DK has become the most popular party among voters showing preference for the opposition coalition.
The former prime minister’s party would be supported by 32 percent of pro-opposition voters if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, whereas in January 2020 only 15 percent said so. Eighteen percent of opposition-oriented voters would vote for Jobbik, and 14 percent for Momentum Mozgalom. In January 2020, this ratio was 16 percent for Jobbik and 27 percent for Momentum. Six percent of opposition coalition supporters would vote for MSZP-Párbeszéd, and 4 percent for LMP. Last January, the socialist party could have expected 9 percent and LMP 5 percent in this group of voters. Other existing parties would currently be supported by 15 percent of pro-opposition voters. Interestingly, in early 2020, Momentum Mozgalom was the most popular force in the opposition group, but by the autumn of 2021, Momentum that promised a political generational renewal had also been significantly repressed by Demokratikus Koalíció.
The realignment mentioned above is inseparable from the fact that
Ferenc Gyurcsány, using the organizational, personal, and financial dominance of DK over the left-liberal parties, has probably directed the electoral preparations of the left forces and the primary procedure favourable to him.
As a result of the pacts concluded in advance by Demokratikus Koalíció, their intensive campaigning activities and withdrawals, Ferenc Gyurcsány’s candidates won the opposition primary in most constituencies in the rank of the left-wing forces, and the constituencies more favourable to the left-liberal side regarding the 2022 parliamentary elections have been won by DK as well. Based on this, it can be assumed that in the next term Demokratikus Koalíció will have the largest left-wing faction in the National Assembly, so one of Gyurcsány’s main strategic goals seems to be fulfilled. It is also thought-provoking that the left-liberal forces outside DK will ultimately cause their own voting base to gradually drop out by forming an alliance with Ferenc Gyurcsány and contributing to the return of the former head of government.
The party of Gyurcsány is bulldozing
The survey suggests that,
based on their self-classification, more than half of left-wing voters (51 percent) would vote for Demokratikus Koalíció,
which fits the picture described. In this group of voters, Momentum is supported by 14 percent and Jobbik by 11 percent. According to their self-classification, 10 percent of leftists would vote for MSZP-Párbeszéd and 3 percent for LMP. Other existing parties would be supported by 6 percent of left-wing respondents.
Thus, we can see that
Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party has become dominant among both opposition-oriented voters and those who profess to be left-wing, winning over significant constituencies from his left-wing “allies”.
The Gyurcsány party has successfully integrated the voters who were leaving the gradually weakening left-liberal parties, a circumstance that predicts that Ferenc Gyurcsány will undoubtedly have a key say on the left in the remaining the six months before the parliamentary elections. In other words, Demokratikus Koalíció has taken a step closer to “resurrecting” pre-2010 socialist politics.