The poll shows that
Preferences for prime minister: 51 percent for Viktor Orbán, 41 percent for Péter Márki-Zay
As a result of the second round of the opposition primary, Péter Márki-Zay, Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, will replace Gergely Karácsony as the left-wing candidate for the head of government in the 2022 parliamentary elections. Given this development, Századvég examined whether Hungarians would prefer Viktor Orbán or Péter Márki-Zay to become prime minister, including the distribution of preferences for prime minister by place of residence.
more than half of the respondents (51 percent) would like the incumbent prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to be the head of government in the next four years,
while the election of Péter Márki-Zay as prime minister would be supported by 41 percent of respondents. The proportion of those who refuse to answer or are uncertain is 8 percent.
|Does not know/ does not answer||0,08|
The issue examined by place of residence shows that
the left-wing candidate for prime minister is popular in Budapest, at the same time, similarly to Gergely Karácsony, he is less able or unable to address rural voters successfully.
According to the survey, 54 percent of residents in Budapest would prefer Márki-Zay to be the head of government, while this proportion is 42 percent for those living in county seats and 37 percent for the population of towns and villages, respectively. In contrast, the re-election of Viktor Orbán would be supported by 38 percent of the residents in the capital, and
in terms of all the examined settlements in the countryside, more than half of the respondents,
52 percent of those living in county seats and 54 and 56 percent of respondents in towns and villages, respectively,
would prefer the incumbent prime minister to lead the country after the 2022 elections.
Gergely Karácsony officially announced his candidacy in May this year. At the starting line, in May 2021, the polls conducted by Századvég show that he lagged behind Prime Minister Viktor Orbán by 50 to 42, according to the results of the preference measurements of prime minister involving two actors at that time. Gergely Karácsony started from a more favourable position than Péter Márki-Zay. The mayor of Budapest lost his support in the summer and eventually withdrew from candidacy.
In each case, the results of the preference measurements of prime minister involving multi actors indicate that Klára Dobrev has the most committed group. As it turned out in the first round of the primary, Gergely Karácsony and Péter Márki-Zay had more votes only together than Dobrev, not separately.
Methodology: CATI method (via telephone), n=1000, among the politically active Hungarian adult population (who promise to vote for sure of probably vote), data collection: October 2021, margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points