According to research data, the support of the governing parties has not changed significantly in recent months, the right-wing supporter bloc can be considered solid. The survey shows that, according to self-reports,
Stable governing parties – collapsing left
According to the latest poll conducted by Századvég, the popularity of the opposition coalition has fallen by 10 percentage points, from 35 percent to 25 percent since the parliamentary elections on 3 April, while the ruling parties have maintained their leading position. According to self-reports, the survey mapped which political force the politically active Hungarians supported on 3 April and which party they currently favour and then compared the results.
The voting base of the left has further melted
52 percent of respondents voted for the Fidesz-KDNP alliance on 3 April, and 51 percent would still support the governing parties if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday.
In contrast, the popularity of the left-liberal bloc has further declined, continuing the earlier trend. While,
according to self-reports, 35 percent of politically active Hungarians voted for the opposition coalition in April, today only 25 percent favour the united left-wing forces,
which is a 10 percentage points shrinkage in the left-liberal electoral bloc. In other words,
the united left-wing bloc has lost the support of more than a quarter of those who voted for them in April.
The phenomenon can be explained by the fact that, even in the political and economic situation exacerbated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its consequences, left-wing parties focus on their own internal crisis and not on the issues that determine the future of the Hungarian people, causing significant disappointment among left-liberal voters. Among other things, a serious conflict erupted around former candidate for prime minister Péter Márki-Zay over the settlement of campaign funds, the Budapest General Assembly was cancelled at the end of May due to tensions between Demokratikus Koalíció and Momentum, and the leader of Jobbik, Péter Jakab, was forced to resign as party leader under pressure from his own party members. While the attention of left-wing forces was drawn to similar technical and power conflicts, they distanced from their own voters and their everyday problems.
Voters disappointed in the opposition coalition and the parties thereof have turned toward Mi Hazánk Mozgalom and Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt
The survey reveals that a significant part of the voters who had detached from the opposition coalition were successfully addressed by Mi Hazánk and Kétfarkú Kutya Párt. Accordingly,
the support of Mi Hazánk increased from 6 percent in April to 9 percent in June, while the base of Kétfarkú Kutya Párt increased from 3 percent to 8 percent.
Currently, 2 percent of respondents would vote for other parties.
Methodology:
CATI, n=1000, among the politically active Hungarian adult population (politically active = who promise to vote for sure or probably vote), data collection: June 2022