The war has further weakened the sense of prosperity
According to the survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in April 2022, the sense of prosperity of both households and businesses deteriorated: on a scale between -100 and +100, the value of prosperity index decreased from -4.8 to -7.5 regarding households, while it decreased from -5.1 to -6.8 regarding businesses. As in the previous month, the Russian-Ukrainian war, the related sanctions, and the induced economic effects played a key role in the development of the indicator. However, unlike the previous month, not only have the outlook for the future deteriorated but the perception of the past as well. A substantial improvement in the sense of prosperity is expected when the war ends, and the effects of sanctions cease.
Economic growth of around 4 percent is expected in 2022
The actual forecast of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató also takes into account the effects of the current Russian-Ukrainian war situation. It is important to emphasise the uncertainty surrounding the war: we do not see the end of the war, nor the damage caused by the war and the sanctions. Our estimates show that Hungary’s economic performance may expand by 3.9 percent in 2022 and 4.7 percent in 2023. Since our previous forecast in December 2021, we have revised our growth expectations and, on the whole, modified downwards due to the war situation...
Uncertainty caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war is reflected in prosperity indices
According to the survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in March 2022, the sense of prosperity of households and businesses deteriorated: on a scale between -100 and +100, the value of prosperity index decreased from -1.9 to -4.8 regarding households, while it decreased from +0.5 to -5.1 regarding businesses. The survey was conducted in the first half of March, so the uncertainty caused by the war in the neighbouring country determined the development of this month’s data.