MACROECONOMIC MONITOR AND REPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
The research on economic growth focuses on the fluctuations in demand, or in other words the cyclic nature of the economy. It primarily covers economic growth, the labor market, external and internal balance, the current and expected status of prices, exchange rates and interest rates. It puts a great emphasis on a complex presentation of economic measures and political actions, as well as on the examination of the relationship between macroeconomic indicators. Through a comprehensive study and forecast of changes in the domestic economy, this complex material is appropriate for preparing the decision-making process of enterprises.
The overview of international processes constitutes an integral part of the quarterly analysis of economic growth, including the analysis of the global economy, labor market and financial processes, the changes in inflation and monetary conditions, and the state of fiscal policy. The publication describes the present situation of domestic economy by analyzing incoming data, regarding economic growth, changes on the labor market, and variables such as price. The analysis outlines the anticipated macroeconomic trends for the coming 5–8 quarters. Finally, it examines domestic fiscal policy, debt financing, and external balance.
The objective of such studies is to provide an overview of the current and future state of the Hungarian economy. The analysis primarily relies on the databases of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and the National Bank of Hungary. In order to present macroeconomic forecasts, the analysis uses the Századvég Forecasting Model. Besides showing consistency between macroeconomic indicators, this model provides room for expert estimations. With the help of this model, the Monitor presents a 5–8 quarter forecast of GDP, labor market variables, short term interest rates, exchange rates, foreign trade balance and current balance of payments. The forecast of fiscal indicators is based on the most recent governmental documents, political measures, and a basic macroeconomic path calculated by Századvég.