Key Takeaway
„They have the power to make the rules and to break them; they are never just rule-takers. They are the orderers, not the ordered. […] But victory has not always gone to those who can inflict the most, but sometimes to those who can suffer the most.”
Context
As the rules-based international order weakens, debates have intensified over the long-term viability of a multipolar world order, as well as the number and actual room for maneuver of the great powers operating within it. The key question is whether one of geopolitics’ most frequently cited propositions will continue to hold true, that is not every nuclear power is a great power, but every great power is a nuclear power.
Summary
According to geopolitical scholar Brendan Simms, great powers should not be identified solely by the size of their economies, but rather by the role they play in the international system. In his view, genuine great powers expect to have a say in the world’s most important affairs, possess the ability to shape the international order, and, when necessary, can even disregard its rules. To do so, they require substantial military capabilities, nuclear weapons, and a strong economic foundation. Simms argues that only four countries currently meet these criteria: the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. The author further contends that global reach and international recognition are equally important components of great-power status. A true great power is not only capable of advancing its interests within its own region but also exercises military, diplomatic, economic, or informational influence on a global scale. The United States derives this influence from its extensive military presence; China from its central role in global supply chains; Russia from its geopolitical leverage and information capabilities; and the United Kingdom from its network of alliances and diplomatic relationships. Simms also emphasizes that great powers must be recognized as such by other states and must project some form of political, cultural, or ideological vision beyond their material capabilities. The analysis identifies resilience as the fourth defining characteristic of great-power status – namely, a country’s ability to withstand crises, wars, and defeats, and subsequently recover from them. Based on these four criteria Simms concludes that only a small number of genuine great powers exist today: the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. In his assessment, influential countries such as India, Germany, Japan, and France remain important international actors, but they do not simultaneously possess all the attributes required for full-fledged great-power status.
