According to the November 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the sense of prosperity among households did not change, while the sense of prosperity among businesses improved significantly. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped from -18.8 to -18.9, while the business index improved from -15.5 to -12.6. Over a longer horizon, the indices show a significant improvement: compared to November 2022, the household index increased by 7.5 index points and the corporate index by 8.1 index points. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, still determined by the Russia-Ukraine war, a declining but still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.

On 7 October, Hamas militants carried out a terrorist attack against Israel that claimed more than 1,400 lives, most of them civilians. In response to the action of the Palestinian terrorist organisation, Israel has launched a military operation in the Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas infrastructure. At the same time, mass demonstrations, not without antisemitic manifestations, in support of Palestine or Hamas took place in many major cities in Western Europe. In light of these developments, Századvég has mapped public attitudes towards the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Századvég’s Sovereignty Conference attracted great interest, with its focus on the efforts of Hungarian conservatives to preserve Hungary’s sovereignty and the presentation of the latest results of the Project Europe research. The event also commemorated the 30th anniversary of Századvég. The event featured high-profile politicians, public figures and Századvég colleagues who shared their thoughts and plans with the participants.

Brussels is asking Member States for EUR 50 billion in additional funding for Ukraine. The proposal would not only impose a significant financial burden on the entire population of the EU but would also allow the armed conflict to drag on. However, EU citizens believe that the parties should instead be urged to negotiate peace and the war should end immediately.

The October 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató shows that both households’ and businesses’ sense of prosperity has improved. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved from -23.0 to -18.8, while the business index improved from -17.5 to -15.5. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, still determined by the Russia-Ukraine war, the still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.

As a result of the price rises caused by the energy crisis, the proportion of energy-poor households across Europe has increased significantly, with 22% of the EU population facing difficulties in heating. Hungarian families are the least affected by this problem thanks to the overhead cost reduction policy.

The majority of European citizens believe that the punitive measures benefit America and China, while they harm Ukraine, Russia and the EU. Századvég’s research reveals that almost three times as many respondents think that sanctions are primarily damaging to the European Union as those who see Russia as the primary loser.

After Russia, Brussels is imposing increasingly stringent trade restrictions on China as well. However, the interventions and possible reactions to them pose a serious threat to the EU economy, and people in more than two-thirds of EU countries tend to reject them.

In 2022, the Hungarian economy grew by 4.6%. Data from the first two quarters of this year suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.3% in 2023. 2024 and 2025 are expected to produce modest growth rates, 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.

According to the September 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the sense of prosperity among households deteriorated slightly, while the sense of prosperity among businesses improved. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, fell from -21.4 to -23.0, while the business index improved from -19.3 to -17.5. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the prolonged Russian–Ukrainian war, the still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.

According to the August 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the sense of prosperity among households improved slightly, while the sense of prosperity among businesses deteriorated. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, increased from -22.5 to -21.4, while the business index fell more sharply from -16.2 to -19.3. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, still determined by the Russian–Ukrainian war, the still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.

The global technological transformation, the dynamic expansion of digitisation and automation, demographic changes, the COVID-19 pandemic and, in line with these, the increasing use of flexible and atypical forms of employment are fundamentally changing the future of work, and consequently the labour market expectations for individual jobs. Among the related labour market expectations, there is an increasing emphasis on so-called transversal skills, i.e. competences (e.g. autonomous learning, collaboration, critical thinking, digital competences, etc.), that allow for quick and flexible adaptation to the changing world of work. A survey conducted by the Digital Division of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in the third quarter of 2022 and the first half of 2023 among employers and employees, as well as the general population, on expectations regarding future jobs revealed that, although with different emphases, both employers and employees in Hungary considered these skills to be the most important for future success.

Sixty-eight percent of Hungarians consider the Brussels political elite corrupt, and those surveyed consider corruption to be the biggest problem related to the leadership of the European Union in Brussels, according to a June survey by Századvég. The survey mapped the attitudes of the population towards the activities of the Brussels elite.

Hungarian GDP grew by 4.6% in 2022, while we forecast economic output to grow by 1.1% in 2023, 4.3% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. Our forecast is subject to downside risks such as shrinking retail sales, declining industrial sales orders and a drop in investment due to the current high interest rate environment.

On 8 June, EU interior ministers – with protests from Hungary and Poland – approved a package of proposals to reform the EU’s migration system, according to which Brussels would distribute illegal immigrants among Member States through a binding EU mechanism. According to the adopted document, countries that do not accept migrants assigned to them under the mandatory quota system must pay a penalty of EUR 22,000 (HUF 8 million) for each migrant not admitted. The next step in the decision-making process is to submit the proposal to the European Parliament. In view of these developments, Századvég has examined the position of Hungarians on the mandatory distribution of illegal migrants according to quotas planned by Brussels.

Until the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the European Union – due to the experience gained during the Second World War – always made it a priority to promote and maintain peace on its territory, and to avoid or substantially reduce the chances of war conflicts on its territory. This decades-old practice has been superseded by the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Europe has embarked on unprecedented arms exports to Ukraine, directly plunging itself into forced support for the war.

Ukrainian posters proclaim a common destiny between Hungarian and Ukrainian residents, highlighting that Hungarians are equally involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war, while the Hungarian government has consistently urged the early agreement in a ceasefire and the start of peace talks. Despite Hungary's pro-peace stance, the clients of the posters in Ukraine still have not reached the urgent need to end the war.

In the political arena, support for Fidesz-KDNP is 42 percent, while opposition alliance would achieve 25 percent in a parliamentary election if it was due this Sunday, according to the latest survey conducted by Századvég. The research mapped the party preference indicators among the politically active Hungarian population (promising participation in the elections for sure or likely).

One might wonder what rational reasons might have led Europe's largest economy to increase the tax burden on its national citizens at a time of increasing inflationary burdens on European households, ineffective management of the effects of immigration and an economic crisis that has hit Europe as a whole even further, in an attempt to tackle labour market challenges caused by immigration. Does strengthening the unemployment benefit system and calling it a "citizen's benefit" really increase immigrants' chances on the labour market, contributing to the development of the German economy, or is it just another ineffective social policy tool that could increase the voter base of the welfare-oriented left? Our analysis examined this topic.

In addition to the fact that lobbying as an activity originated in the United States of America, in its form it can be found in some form around almost every person or group of persons with the highest political decision-making, one might say inherent in power. If it cannot be ruled out, its proper regulation is justified, otherwise it raises internal and external sovereignty (and security) issues that currently concern both the leaders of the European Union and Hungary.