Press Room

In 2023, the volume of Hungarian gross domestic product (GDP) fell slightly by 0.7%, while growth is likely to remain subdued in the following years. We expect Hungarian economic output to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. This year and next will be marked by a slow recovery process.

According to the March 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.9 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -14.8, while the business index to -12.9. The March survey shows a marked positive change in that households are less worried about job losses in the next six months than a month earlier. In the business sector, the largest negative change from February to March was in expectations for future exchange rate movements.

86% of Hungarians are against European or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine, according to a March opinion poll by Századvég. Following recent calls by several leading European politicians, echoing the war rhetoric of French President Emmanuel Macron, for European countries to send troops to support Ukraine against Russia, Századvég has examined the Hungarian public’s views on certain issues related to the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will pay a visit to the United States for several days, during which he will meet former US President Donald Trump, now the only Republican presidential candidate, on 8 March. Trump, just like Hungary, is for peace and calls for an early end to the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine to avoid more people dying in the war. As one of the main political divides between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the US presidential election in November is expected to be the continuation of the war or the promotion of peace, Századvég has mapped out what Hungarians think about the current and former US president in this regard.

No European country has majority support for sending troops to Ukraine, according to the Századvég Europe Project research. The analysis, based on the survey, explored European public opinion on the issue of military engagement in Ukraine, following several statements by French President Emmanuel Macron suggesting the need for military intervention by European countries in the war in Ukraine.

An overwhelming majority (87%) of Hungarian consumers think that it is fundamentally positive when a product is Hungarian: they prefer Hungarian goods, and this is encouraging news for Hungarian businesses. Detailed data in the October 2023 survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató show that Hungarian consumers have a significantly higher preference for domestic products when buying food than when buying other products.

Századvég held a conference on one of the most topical issues of our time, freedom of speech. The main question of the Freedom of Speech Conference was “Is there still freedom of speech?”. At the event, prominent national and international figures shared their thoughts with the participants on topics such as hate speech, freedom of expression and freedom of the press, the influence of the internet on freedom of speech, and how Brussels is making public discourse in Hungary more difficult.

According to the February 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.0 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 0.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -12.9, while the business index to -11.8. A marked positive change seen in the February survey is that people have revised down their expectations for future inflation. At the same time, the biggest change for companies, from January to February, was the change in the price of their products over the past year.

Today, the perception and role of the countryside is characterised by a particular duality. On the one hand, urbanisation and industrialisation have accelerated the depopulation of already less densely populated peripheral as well as the ageing of their population. On the other hand, the recent crises and the coronavirus pandemic have highlighted that without the countryside, a strong, developing and resilient national economy and, ultimately, national sovereignty are unthinkable.

Creative industries have been a recognised driver of developed economies for decades. All over the world, the vast majority of products with high added value are still designed in Europe and the US, and only their production has been relocated to Asia. These products are distributed around the world through European and American companies, brands and retailers. Therefore, Hungary is typically only involved in these global processes through minor manufacturing and logistics operations, and primarily on the consumer side. Századvég Konjunktúrakutató has conducted a comprehensive analysis to explore how Hungary could strengthen its role in this industry.

Macro Monitor - November 2023

According to the January 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.3 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index weakened to -11.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 18.0 index points and the corporate index by 10.2 index points. The January survey showed a marked positive change, with households saying they had bought more goods and services in the past year than a year earlier. And companies were positive about their future investment plans.

The Hungarian economy grew by 4.6% in 2022. Data from the first three quarters of 2023 suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.7% in 2023. We expect growth to be 2.7% and 3.1% in the next two years, which implies an overall slow pick-up after this year’s economic downturn.

According to the December 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.7 index points and business economic expectations by 1.9 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -15.2, while the business index strengthened to -10.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon as well: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 14.7 index points and the corporate index by 11.2 index points. The December survey reveals the biggest positive shift in households’ inflation expectations, while businesses were most positive about the country’s overall economic situation over the past year.

Nearly three quarters (72%) of Hungarians are against Ukraine joining the European Union as soon as possible, according to the latest Századvég poll. The rejection of Ukraine’s EU accession has been growing month by month since September 2023.

According to the November 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the sense of prosperity among households did not change, while the sense of prosperity among businesses improved significantly. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped from -18.8 to -18.9, while the business index improved from -15.5 to -12.6. Over a longer horizon, the indices show a significant improvement: compared to November 2022, the household index increased by 7.5 index points and the corporate index by 8.1 index points. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, still determined by the Russia-Ukraine war, a declining but still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.

On 7 October, Hamas militants carried out a terrorist attack against Israel that claimed more than 1,400 lives, most of them civilians. In response to the action of the Palestinian terrorist organisation, Israel has launched a military operation in the Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas infrastructure. At the same time, mass demonstrations, not without antisemitic manifestations, in support of Palestine or Hamas took place in many major cities in Western Europe. In light of these developments, Századvég has mapped public attitudes towards the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Századvég’s Sovereignty Conference attracted great interest, with its focus on the efforts of Hungarian conservatives to preserve Hungary’s sovereignty and the presentation of the latest results of the Project Europe research. The event also commemorated the 30th anniversary of Századvég. The event featured high-profile politicians, public figures and Századvég colleagues who shared their thoughts and plans with the participants.