Macroeconomics

„The Macroeconomics division delivers high-quality analyses, calculations and forecasts to meet clients’ needs."

The activities of the Macroeconomics division are quite broad. We support our clients’ decision-making by providing high-quality analyses, calculations and forecasts. Within the company, we also participate in the professional activities of the other advisory divisions, if those activities are related to macroeconomics.In addition to prosperity surveys based on the classic regular monthly household and business surveys, quarterly macroeconomic forecasts and other analyses, we cover a wide range of topics. In recent years, the division has been involved in development policy, energy, agribusiness and healthcare projects, among others.

CONTACT US

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The financial intermediary system

We provide analyses of Hungarian and international financial systems and interconnections upon specific requests from market and governmental clients. In this context, we have prepared analyses for a number of our partners (e.g. the Ministry of Finance, Government Debt Management Agency, Association of Lenders to Businesses). Many factors influence the lending processes and riskiness of […]

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Money and capital markets

Understanding stock market trends, volatile bond and stock prices and foreign currency exchange rates among the challenges of our time. An important feature of our times is that macroeconomic variables, which were considered more static in the past, have become increasingly volatile, similar to stock prices and foreign currency exchange rates. This makes it challenging […]

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Commentaries, short analyses and polls

We comment on the most important indicators (published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the MNB, the Government Debt Management Agency and other international organisations), i.e. we provide analysis to the press as soon as they are published, and we also publish them on our website. We consider it important to publish short analyses in […]

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Higher education

The classic roles and objectives of universities have expanded in recent decades, supported by a continued focus on planned innovation and the role of knowledge. Attitude and skills development for university teaching and research staff, as well as broadening their knowledge of entrepreneurship and intellectual property rights, have also become crucial.  The massification of higher […]

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Defence innovation

Internationally, it is generally true that the technological and operational advantages along which countries achieve their ultimate goal of military industrial independence are of paramount importance. Our research findings suggest that the following factors influence the development of a successful national defence industry:  geopolitical factors  historical factors the resources available national capacity for innovation

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Cultural innovation

Innovation can be understood not only in science and higher education, but also in the cultural space. The ideal of the 21st century museum is emerging, with a focus on community organising roles. A typical solution for international museums is to organise several museums in a single umbrella institution, which opens up opportunities for professional cooperation. […]

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Public education and digitisation

As in so many areas, it was the fourth industrial revolution and the boom in smart devices that turned the tide. Over the last two decades, educational science has reached a broad consensus on the need for educational technology. This was not a mere “bowing” to trends, but the result of a major paradigm shift. […]

The Hungarian economy could get back on a growth path next year

In 2022, the Hungarian economy grew by 4.6%. Data from the first two quarters of this year suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.3% in 2023. 2024 and 2025 are expected to produce modest growth rates, 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.

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About us

The Macroeconomics division contributes to the implementation of projects with its analytical, computational and modelling capacity, which has an added value unique in the Hungarian consulting market.

The specialists of the division are able to quantify and forecast processes, quantify the effects of certain measures and events, and study and summarise the complexity of the area under study across several segments. The division is able to combine primary data collection and quantitative analyses and to draw qualitative and quantitative conclusions from them. Another strength of the division is market analysis and the production of analyses (e.g. footprint analysis) that quantify the role of a company, sector or economic area in the economy. Our colleagues are also experts in microeconomics, financial markets and insurance markets. The preparedness of our staff is also supported by our regular quarterly and monthly publications, which keep our team up-to-date on both Hungarian and international economic developments.

Director

Our director has extensive professional knowledge and experience of financial systems. After his university studies, he completed his studies in Switzerland and Austria (one and a half year) with scholarships in corporate finance and banking risk management. After his university years, he worked in banking for four years and learned about the international financial environment.

He has more than 12 years of teaching experience. He teaches the following subjects: international finance, foreign economics, international financing and risk management, international economics. Besides teaching, he has numerous national and international publications. His main research interest is therefore in financial systems (banks and markets).

He joined Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in 2014 as a macroeconomic analyst (mainly in macrofinance), and he has been Head of the Macroeconomic division since 2022.

Együttműködő partnereink

Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem

Nemzeti Közszolgálati Egyetem

Állatorvostudományi Egyetem

Focusing on Macroeconomy

The financial intermediary system

We provide analyses of Hungarian and international financial systems and interconnections upon specific requests from market and governmental clients. In this context, we have prepared analyses for a number of our partners (e.g. the Ministry of Finance, Government Debt Management Agency, Association of Lenders to Businesses). Many factors influence the lending processes and riskiness of the Hungarian banking system and the ability of customers (households and companies) to repay loans. The identification of relevant risk factors and the interpretation of impact assessments are crucial. 

Money and capital markets

Understanding stock market trends, volatile bond and stock prices and foreign currency exchange rates among the challenges of our time. An important feature of our times is that macroeconomic variables, which were considered more static in the past, have become increasingly volatile, similar to stock prices and foreign currency exchange rates. This makes it challenging for regulators to take the right economic policy decisions.  

Commentaries, short analyses and polls

We comment on the most important indicators (published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the MNB, the Government Debt Management Agency and other international organisations), i.e. we provide analysis to the press as soon as they are published, and we also publish them on our website. We consider it important to publish short analyses in the media. The most curated interface is the VG-opinion and VG-blog columns. We also provide monthly forecasts of the most important macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, interest rates) at the request of vg.hu, portolio.hu and Refinitiv.

Prosperity surveys

The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering the main topics of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.

According to the February 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.0 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 0.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -12.9, while the business index to -11.8. A marked positive change seen in the February survey is that people have revised down their expectations for future inflation. At the same time, the biggest change for companies, from January to February, was the change in the price of their products over the past year.

Quarterly forecast

The division produces quarterly macroeconomic forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables of the Hungarian economy. The forecast is based on a state-of-the-art macroeconomic model, using the latest available data, economic policy decisions and international economic events. 

The Hungarian economy grew by 4.6% in 2022. Data from the first three quarters of 2023 suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.7% in 2023. We expect growth to be 2.7% and 3.1% in the next two years, which implies an overall slow pick-up after this year’s economic downturn.

Latest Quarterly forecast

 2022202320242025
Gross domestic product (volume index)4.6-0.72.73.1
Household final consumption expenditure (volume index)5.8-2.02.62.0
Gross fixed capital formation (volume index)2.2-12.18.13.2
Export volume index (based on national accounts)11.80.52.87.4
Import volume index (based on national accounts)11.1-3.94.56.7
Balance of international trade in goods (EUR billion)-15.2-10.4-13.9-13.0
Consumer price index (%)14.617.75.93.7
Central bank base interest rate at the end of the period (%)13.012.19.76.9
Unemployment rate (%)3.63.94.24.0
Current account balance as a percentage of GDP-8.2-4.8-6.5-6.2
Net lending as a percentage of the GDP-6.0-2.6-4.4-4.1
ESA balance of public finances as a percentage of GDP-6.2-5.4-4.0-1.8
Government debt-to-GDP ratio73.371.771.269.7

Date of publication: 28, szeptember 2023

Macroeconomic Monitor

The Macroeconomic Monitor presents and analyses the most important macroeconomic and financial indicators of the Hungarian economy in a given month. For the Macroeconomic Monitor, we use monthly data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the MNB, the Hungarian Ministry of Finance, the Government Debt Management Agency and Refinitiv. Each month, it includes an international outlook, the current value of our prosperity indicator, SZIGMA, and details of the most interesting economic data of the month. 

We provide a wide array of solutions

Competences

Services

Market analysis and company analysis

Analysis of the companies in individual sectors, including a financial breakdown, and a description of the sector’s operating environment.

Evaluation of primary research and preparing impact assessments

Preparing estimates and impact assessments based on quantitative household and/or business surveys.

Quantitative analysis

Quantifying the effects of economic policy measures, using statistical methods to produce various estimates.

Industry forecast

Forecasts for specific industries.

Sectoral estimates

Quantified sectoral estimates, estimating the impact of certain factors.

Financial market analysis

Analyses on the financial intermediation system.

Regional analysis

Analyses on the development of specific cities or regions.

Macroeconomic forecast

Macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Hungary, its regions, areas and sectors.

Együttműködések, amelyekre büszkék vagyunk

Fontosabb referenciamunkáink

Projekt neve

Innovációs és Technológiai Minisztérium

Megrendelő

Konjunktúrakutatás

Év

2019-2022

Fő témakörök

Lakossági felmérés, vállalati felmérés, konjunktúraindex

Projekt neve

Dohányipari fooprint, alternatív dohányipari termékek Philip Morris egészséggazdasági hatásai

Megrendelő

Philip Morris

Év

2021

Fő témakörök

Foorprint, ágazati elemzés, egészség- gazdaságtan

Projekt neve

Sopron-Felmérés készítése Sopronban a lakosság körében

Megrendelő

Sopron

Év

2021-2022

Fő témakörök

Lakossági felmérés, stratégia megalapozás

Partnereink visszajelzései

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Latest reports

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Contact us!

In addition to the general services mentioned above, you can request a consultation using the contact form below:

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