Key Takeaway
„The situation in the area of nuclear non-proliferation has taken a threatening turn. We believe it is justified to discuss the risk of at least three states officially and unofficially possessing nuclear weapons within the next ten years.”
Context
The issue of nuclear proliferation has once again entered the public debate in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the wars in the Middle East. While the Western world remains committed to maintaining the non-proliferation framework established in response to the lessons of the Cold War, an increasing number of countries — whether actively engaged in war or seeking to defend themselves against potential threats — are openly or implicitly raising the possibility of reshaping the existing nuclear order.
Summary
In a lengthy joint essay published in Russian, national security expert Vladimir Orlov and international relations expert Sergei Semyonov examine the failures of nuclear non-proliferation, focusing in particular on the growing nuclear threat. According to the authors, conflicts in recent years — especially developments in the Middle East and strikes against Iran — have undermined the credibility of international agreements, while several countries, including South Korea, Japan, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are deliberately reassessing their nuclear strategies, either openly or behind the scenes. The analysis suggests that a new nuclear “cluster” could emerge over the next decade, with several countries moving irreversibly toward acquiring nuclear weapons. Orlov and Semyonov argue that although the non-proliferation regime is still formally functioning, it is showing increasing signs of political fragmentation. Trust among the major powers is declining, tensions between the West and Russia are intensifying, and the spread of so-called nuclear umbrellas — in other words, extended nuclear deterrence and allied security guarantees — is making the situation even more complex. The authors believe the greatest danger is that some states, in response to security threats, could embark on rapid and unconventional nuclear-weapons programs, while others may attempt to prevent such developments through pre-emptive military strikes. Overall, the essay warns of the risk of an unstable, multipolar nuclear order with an uncertain outcome — one in which the existing rules and institutions may no longer be capable of providing the level of stability they once did.
