Key Insight
„Rapidly unfolding global events, particularly in the Middle East, are pushing the region toward a new reality. It is marked by uncertainty, intensifying competition, conflict, and pronounced polarization, with the emergence of new centers of power and players seeking influence and dominance.”
Context
Amid the transformation of the global order, new security alliances and power axes are taking shape in the Middle East, while instability and rivalry are intensifying. Although the Gaza agreement brokered by the United States demonstrates that Washington remains a key player in the region, regional powers such as Israel, Turkey, and Iran are increasingly pursuing their own strategic agendas.
Summary
According to Lisa Issac, Doctor of Political Science, specialist in international relations at Adyghe State University in Maikop, Russia, Israel’s strategy is centered on what it perceives as an existential conflict with Iran. Tel Aviv regards this confrontation as a matter of survival, and its ultimate objective may be to weaken, or even bring about the collapse of the Iranian regime. To this end, Israel employs hybrid methods, recruits regional allies, and seeks to prepare the strategic environment for a potential decisive confrontation, while also recognizing that another war would have extremely destructive consequences for the entire region.
Issac also highlights that Israel is simultaneously competing with Turkey for regional influence, primarily through indirect means and alliance networks, while seeking to avoid open military confrontation. It is important to note, however, that after Turkish-Israeli relations deteriorated significantly as a result of Israel’s war in Gaza, Gaza can no longer be viewed merely as a localized conflict zone. Rather, it has become a key element in a broader strategic game that could ultimately involve Iran.
The third flashpoint identified by the author concerns Israel’s neighboring countries. Israel’s conflicts with Lebanon and Syria have entered a “managed,” low-intensity phase: Israel continues to pursue its territorial and security interests while at the same time establishing pragmatic cooperation mechanisms with Syria under U.S. supervision.
Consequently, Issac emphasizes that Israel’s multidirectional strategy fits well within the logic of the “controlled chaos” that characterizes the Middle East as a whole. In this environment, maintaining balance and managing risks have become the primary objectives rather than achieving lasting stability, thereby perpetuating the political tensions that continue to define the region.
