As the upcoming U.S. presidential election draws near, examining how Hungarian society perceives relations and cooperation opportunities with the United States becomes particularly relevant. A comprehensive public opinion survey by Századvég provides unique insights into this issue. The survey results highlight that while Hungarians generally support closer cooperation, they view U.S. cultural influence and international engagement critically. The research also explores how Hungarian public opinion perceives the potential impact of the November 5th U.S. presidential election on bilateral relations.

U.S.-Hungarian Relations: Closer Cooperation and Constructive Criticism 

The survey results paint a dual picture of perceptions about the United States: while the domestic population views strengthening ties with the U.S. positively, they have reservations about the United States’ global role and cultural influence on the world. Accordingly, 74 percent of respondents would consider closer cooperation with the United States beneficial. Perceptions of the reliability of the U.S. administration are more divided, but a majority (55 percent) of those surveyed view the U.S. government as a reliable partner, while 45 percent express doubts.

We can observe different patterns regarding public perceptions of American cultural influence and the U.S.’s international engagement. A majority of respondents (58 percent) view U.S. influence on world culture critically, while 42 percent view this phenomenon positively. Perceptions of the United States’ global role nearly evenly divide Hungarian society: the ratio of those with positive opinions and those who are skeptical is nearly identical (49-50 percent).

These research findings suggest that while Hungarian public opinion generally supports closer cooperation with the United States, specific assessments of American culture, administration, and foreign policy are far less clear-cut, with significant differences in opinion among the Hungarian population.

This division is partly related to respondents’ party preferences and socio-demographic characteristics. For example, Hungarian right-wing voters are more skeptical about the reliability of the current U.S. administration (44 percent) and view the U.S.’s international engagement less positively (40 percent) than those who position themselves on the left (68 and 64 percent, respectively). It can also be said that those with higher education view the U.S.’s international engagement more critically (55 percent), while those with lower education levels view U.S. cultural influence more positively (50 percent).

Cooperation Priorities: Innovation, Technology, Economy, and Security 

The survey also explored which specific areas of cooperation the Hungarian public would find promising with the United States. The data show that innovation and technological cooperation are of paramount importance to the Hungarian public in cooperating with the U.S., which 86 percent of respondents consider important. This is closely followed by strengthening economic and trade relations, which 84 percent of respondents similarly value. Security and defense policy cooperation is also a priority, with 81 percent of respondents ranking it as an important area. Additionally, protecting shared values and democracy (75 percent), energy security and energy policy cooperation (73 percent), and strengthening cultural and educational ties (66 percent) are also potential points of connection deemed important by a majority of Hungarian society. These results indicate that Hungarians are seeking multifaceted and mutually beneficial opportunities for cooperation with the United States.

Perceptions of the U.S. Presidential Election Outcome

The research also examined whether, according to Hungarian public opinion, a Democratic or Republican victory would be more advantageous for Hungary in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The results show that Hungarian society is divided on this issue. Nevertheless, a relative majority of respondents believe that a victory by the Donald Trump-led Republicans would be more favorable for Hungary in every area examined.

The proportion of those who believe a Republican victory would be more advantageous consistently (by about 10 percentage points) exceeds those who would consider a Democratic victory more favorable, whether in terms of considering Hungary’s interests (44 percent vs. 27 percent), shaping global political processes (40 percent vs. 33 percent), maintaining the U.S.’s leadership role (42 percent vs. 29 percent), or promoting international peace and security (43 percent vs. 33 percent).

However, it is important to emphasize that Hungarian public perceptions of the U.S. presidential candidates are far from uniform. In no listed dimension does the proportion of those who would consider a Republican victory more advantageous reach an absolute majority, and the proportion of those who believe there is no significant difference between the two parties on these issues is also substantial (15-20 percent). Nearly one-tenth of respondents could not or would not express an opinion.

Hungarians View the United States Constructively but Not Uncritically 

The research results highlight that Hungarian society generally supports closer cooperation with the United States, especially in innovation, technology, economy, trade, and security policy. However, perceptions of American culture, government, and international engagement paint a much more nuanced and divisive picture. Although the population is divided on the question of which American party’s victory would be more advantageous for Hungary, a relative majority would consider a Republican success more favorable. Overall, while Hungarians generally view strengthening ties with the U.S. positively, the future of cooperation between the two countries may be greatly influenced by domestic political processes, public perceptions, and changes in the global political and economic environment.

• Methodology

In our research, we applied a mixed methodology to map the opinions and perceptions of the Hungarian population on issues related to the United States. Data collection took place in two phases. In the first phase, we conducted an online questionnaire survey (CAWI – Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing) among the Hungarian population aged 18-69. The sample composition represents the distribution of the entire population by gender, age, education, and place of residence. A total of 1,000 people were surveyed during the data collection. Data collection took place between May 25 and June 18, 2024. In the second phase of the research, we conducted a telephone questionnaire survey (CATI – Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing), specifically to examine the question block related to U.S. presidential candidates. The telephone sample is also representative of the adult Hungarian population by gender, age, education, and place of residence. The data collection took place between October 1 and October 8, 2024. Distortions resulting from the data collections were corrected by iterative weighting.