At its June meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council did not change the base rate, which has been in place since September. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%.
Raw data show that retail sales increased by 6.8%, while calendar-adjusted data show that they increased by 5.0% in April 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year.
In April 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 3.7%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 4.0%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 2.4% year on year in April.
The monthly value of the SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides feedback on the current state of the Hungarian economy, was -0.1353 up to May 2025. This means that the Hungarian economy’s growth rate continued to remain below its historical trend. The indicator points to an economic slowdown from the previous month.
The latest forecast of another indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, a short-term indicator of the future of the Hungarian economy, suggests that Hungarian economic growth should pick up significantly from autumn 2025. Furthermore, the indicator forecasts that Hungarian economic growth will exceed the historical trend by the end of the forecast horizon (early 2026).
In May 2025, consumer prices rose on average by 4.4% on an annual basis.
Construction output in the EU rose by 1.4% from the previous month
According to a report published by Eurostat on 19 June 2025, construction output showed significant growth in April 2025 in both the eurozone and the European Union as a whole. Compared with the previous month, output rose by 1.7% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU. This positive shift is noteworthy in the light of the slight decline recorded in both regions in March.
A detailed breakdown shows that, in the euro area, construction of buildings increased by 0.9%, specialised construction activities rose by 1.7%, while civil engineering fell by 0.2%. The EU as a whole shows a similar pattern, with construction of buildings up 0.5%, specialised activities up 1.4% and civil engineering down 0.2%.
Compared with April 2024, construction output rose by 3.0% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU as a whole. All sectors grew year on year: construction of buildings rose by 1.7%, civil engineering by 3.3% and specialised services by 2.4% in the euro area. In the EU, these figures were 0.5%, 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively.
Member States differ significantly. The highest monthly increases were registered in Hungary (+5.3 percentage points), Spain (+4.3 percentage points) and Slovenia (+4.0 percentage points). In contrast, the largest decreases were recorded in the Czech Republic (-5.0 percentage points), Denmark (-0.9 percentage points) and Poland (-0.8 percentage points). On an annual basis, Spain recorded an outstanding increase of 14.7 percentage points, while Bulgaria (+7.0 percentage points) and Belgium (+6.6 percentage points) also recorded significant growth. The largest annual falls were recorded in Slovenia (-5.9 percentage points), Poland (-4.3 percentage points) and Slovakia (-2.1 percentage points).
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
