Nigeria: religious conflict, oil and migration

This analysis examines four interrelated dimensions of Nigeria’s current crisis and its strategic importance. First, it outlines the fundamental demographic and economic realities shaping the current challenges, including the fact that the population has almost doubled in a generation without commensurate economic development or effective governance structures to deal with ethnic and regional complexities. Second, it addresses the increasing persecution of Nigerian Christians in the north, a humanitarian disaster that has triggered unprecedented threats of US military intervention and raises fundamental questions about sovereignty, humanitarian responsibility and the impact of external intervention on internal conflicts.

Third, it examines Nigeria’s key role in global and European energy security, in particular its vast oil and gas reserves and ambitious pipeline projects that could provide vital energy diversification for Europe. Finally, the analysis examines the migration position of Nigeria as a country of origin and transit, with profound implications for European border management and development policy. Together, these four dimensions reveal a country whose stability is essential for European strategic interests, but whose future remains deeply uncertain.

Facts and figures

Nigeria’s population has grown from 126 million in the 2000s to almost 240 million today,[1] roughly doubling in just under a generation – a huge and radical change. As in many other regions of the “Global South”, the demographic explosion has not been accompanied by adequate economic growth, nor by democratic management of the country’s many ethnic and regional problems. Nigeria has a gross domestic product of 187 billion dollars and a population 24 times that of Hungary. Nigeria is also struggling to manage regional, linguistic and religious differences between eight main ethnic groups that have been at war with each other for centuries, living in different regions over a vast geographical area (923,769 km²).[2]

In many ways, Nigeria is a key player in the dynamics of the Sahel, bordering Niger (1,608 km) and Chad (85 km), which only have access to the sea through Nigeria to trade with the rest of the world, so any instability caused by internal or external factors will undoubtedly affect the whole Sahara region. Nigeria is a regional power in both economic and military terms, becoming a BRICS partner in January 2025 and is expected to become a member in the coming years.[3] As Russia’s influence extends to many countries in the region (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), Nigeria could represent an opportunity for the West to regain influence in the Sahara region.[4]

Persecution of Christians

According to a report by the Open Doors organisation, Nigeria has 106,608,000 Christians, representing 46.5% of the country’s total population. These figures are in line with the CIA factbook, which shows the religious composition of Nigeria as follows: 53.5% Muslim, 10.6% Roman Catholic, 35.3% other Christian and 0.6% other (2018 estimate).[5] Like other countries in the Sahel region, Nigeria is facing the activities of extremist Islamist groups, which are usually hostile to Christians in the Muslim world. The persecution of Christians can take extreme forms, such as forced marriages, suicide bombings of Christian villages and the kidnapping of priests. Nigerian Christians are brutally attacked by Islamist militants such as Fulani militants, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) militia.

In particular, Christians living in the north of Nigeria are at constant risk of danger and violence, especially in states where Sharia law is applied and Christians are only second-class citizens. Many Christians, especially men, are murdered, while women are often kidnapped and sexually abused.[6] However, the central government does not have the means to exercise power over the northern regions where these militias operate. According to Open Doors’ documentation, 4,118 Christians were killed and 3,300 Christians kidnapped in Nigeria in 2024, while 3,100 Christians were killed and 2,830 kidnapped in 2025. In addition, hundreds of Christian women have been sexually assaulted. These figures are among the highest in the world and have remained stable over the past five years.[7]

On 1 November 2025, US President Donald Trump threatened Nigeria with military action to end the persecution of Christians and ordered the Pentagon to begin preparations for intervention, leading to a dramatic deterioration in relations between the US and Nigeria.[8] The Nigerian government recognises the crisis in northern Nigeria, where Christians are being persecuted, but wants to resolve the violence in its own way, rejecting the idea of foreign military intervention, arguing that the crisis is complex.[9] The Nigerian government has denied accusations that the country is “religiously intolerant” and has indicated its willingness to help fight Islamist insurgents.[10]

It is extremely difficult to carry out military humanitarian missions in the Sahel, especially in large countries like Nigeria. This is well illustrated by the intervention in neighbouring Mali, which was extremely costly and unsuccessful. Nigeria has ten times the population and the economic risks are certainly greater. Moreover, as military humanitarian interventions have been challenged in international relations over the past decades, it is difficult to ensure continuity of intervention. The air strikes will reduce the power of radical Islamist groups (as in Somalia), but will not be enough to stabilise the situation, as these groups will take revenge on the civilian population.

Oil and gas stocks

Nigeria is a resource-rich country, although its economy is heavily dependent on the oil and gas industry.[11] Thus, in 2024, crude oil accounted for nearly 70% of the country’s exports and half of the government budget. In 2023, the country was producing 1.5 million barrels of oil per day; in 2024, it ranked eighth in world crude oil exports and remained Africa’s largest oil producer with 1.48 million barrels per day. Thanks to its oil reserves (more than 37 billion barrels), observers believe Nigeria has a promising oil future and remains at the top of the list of oil producing and exporting countries. In addition, Nigeria is becoming the continent’s leading gas economy, expected to become Africa’s leading gas producer and exporter, with more than 210 billion cubic metres of gas reserves.[12]

There are two major projects currently funded and under construction to link gas supplies to Nigeria and Europe: the Nigeria-Algeria pipeline, which would cross the desert, and the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline, which would run along the Atlantic Ocean. These projects can provide investment opportunities and diversification of energy sources for Hungary and other European countries. The 4128-kilometre Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), currently under study, would transport gas from Nigeria to Algeria (and eventually to Europe).[13] But this project requires an end to the unrest in northern Nigeria, stabilisation of the Niger-Algeria border and recognition of the current Niger government. The Nigeria-Morocco pipeline would cost USD 25 billion and would be built in phases over 25 years.[14] Although it would be built in relatively stable countries, the cost and duration of building the infrastructure is a significant challenge.

Migration

The number of Nigerian immigrants has increased dramatically over the past 25 years, from 610,200 in the 2000s to around 2.1 million in 2024. Nigeria is estimated to have a diaspora of 17 million people, mainly living in Europe and the United States. By the end of 2024, there were more than three and a half million internally displaced persons, mainly as a result of unrest in the northeast and northwest. Nigeria is also an important West African transit and destination country for migrants from the Sahara and other West African countries. The first, second and third generation Nigerian diaspora make a significant contribution to the country’s economy through remittances. In 2022, USD 20.9 billion was transferred to the country, the largest amount in sub-Saharan Africa. Emigration is expected to increase, as 43.2% of Nigerians are under 14 and 63% are under 24. Nigeria’s population is expected to reach 400 million by 2050, making it the third largest in the world after China and India.[15]

The European Commission has recognised that Nigeria is the number one country of origin for illegal migration to Europe from the Sahel and Lake Chad regions. That is why the EU has set up the Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, which operates mainly in the Nigerian states of Yobe, Gombe, Borno and Adamawa, and aims to combine relief, rehabilitation and development in order to find a solution to the precarious socio-economic situation and food shortages.[16] Illegal migrants from Nigeria mainly target the UK because of its official language, English, and colonial past. In 2021, 312,000 Nigerians were living in the UK, with a further 52,000 migrating in 2024.[17] In the EU, Nigerians migrate mainly to three countries: Italy (106,069), Germany (around 100,000) and Spain (around 60,000). Smaller Nigerian migrant communities are also found in Ireland (20,559), the Netherlands (20,000) and Austria (19,286). [18]

Summary

The crackdown on Christians by radical Islamists in northern Nigeria poses serious risks for Europe. These include illegal migration and the terrorist activities of Islamist groups in Nigeria, which pose a threat to the security of Nigeria and Chad. Another risk is Nigeria’s population growth, which is expected to reach 400 million in the next 25 years. In the midst of religious and ethnic divisions, without a proactive development policy, society could descend into chaos. It is in everyone’s interest to resolve this unsustainable situation, as the country has huge economic potential and its oil and gas reserves could make it one of Europe’s main energy suppliers. Moreover, it will play an increasingly important role in the global economy in the coming years if it joins BRICS.