Migration to Europe in 2024 – Main routes and trends

The latest Frontex figures show that there were 221,625 illegal border crossings into Europe in 2024. Illegal migrants used the five routes that have emerged in recent years (Western Balkan, Eastern Mediterranean, Central Mediterranean, Western Mediterranean and West African) with varying degrees of intensity. Despite the European economic crisis and the lack of incentives for migration in European economies, the number of irregular migrants is relatively high. In this short paper, we present the data and summarise the factors driving illegal migration.

The Western Balkans route

According to the Frontex report on illegal migration in Europe 2024, there were 21,520 illegal border crossings on the Western Balkan route in 2024. The main countries of origin were Syria (6,850), Turkey (6,119), Afghanistan (1,974), Iraq (718) and Pakistan (646). Despite the restrictive policies and efforts of Croatia and Hungary, this number remains high. Even if the numbers are lower than on other migration routes, it seems that Turkey is still not able to fully dismantle the smuggling networks that exploit the weak points of control of the Turkish-Greek border (towards Northern Macedonia and Albania). The main source of illegal border crossings across the Balkans continued to be Syrians or Turks (presumably partly Kurds) from Turkey, some of whom hold Syrian Turkish citizenship. In 2024, under the Assad government, there was no hope for peace or reconstruction in Syria, and compulsory military service could have played a significant role in the exodus of young Syrians. The fall of the Assad regime and a possible radical reduction in the number of Syrians fleeing from Turkey to Europe could be good news for both the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkan routes. According to the UN, 30% of Syrians currently want to return.[1]

 The Eastern Mediterranean route (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria)

On the Eastern Mediterranean route, 69,436 illegal border crossings were recorded, with Syria (25,179), Afghanistan (14,876), Egypt (6,537), Turkey (3,207) and Eritrea (2,194) in the top five countries of origin. Turkey is both a transit and a source country for irregular migration, with the majority of migrants being of Syrian or Turkish origin. This is a feature that is common to the Western Balkan route. The difference between the two routes is that, unlike the Western Balkan route, the number of Afghans is much larger. Afghanistan is ruled by the Taliban, and although they have achieved political stability, the country’s economy is in a catastrophic state and their religious views are extremist. A significant proportion of irregular migrants who choose the Eastern Mediterranean route come from Egypt and East Africa, mainly Eritrea. Egypt and Eritrea show political stability under authoritarian military rule. However, the economies of the two countries are in decline and the Gulf countries cannot absorb all the migrants from Egypt and East Africa, as they need skilled labour instead. The deteriorating economic situation in Libya, previously the main destination for illegal Egyptian migrants, has also contributed to the increase in the number of Egyptians seeking to enter Europe illegally. Even though the EU has agreements with Cairo to tackle illegal immigration,[2] the country’s declining economy, which supports 114 million people and is growing by 1.6 million a year, is a major risk factor for illegal migration.

The Central Mediterranean route

In 2024, 66,766 illegal border crossings were recorded on the central Mediterranean route. The top five countries of origin for migrants were Bangladesh (13,974), Syria (12,550), Tunisia (7,679), Egypt (4,439) and Guinea (3,552). A significant number of illegal Syrian migrants use this route as well, but North and Sub-Saharan Africans and South-East Asians also play an important role, especially Bangladeshis. In recent years, Italy has been the number one destination for illegal migrants from Bangladesh, taking advantage of organised smuggling networks. Bangladeshis travel by plane to Tunisia or Libya, and from there arrive illegally in Italy by boat. Although South Asians have traditionally migrated to the UK, the country’s economy has recently stagnated, with fewer jobs and tighter border controls. In contrast to the UK, Italy’s economy is more dynamic, with more jobs, which although less well paid, are easier to access and better adapted to informal economic activity. [3]

The Western Mediterranean route

In 2024, there were 17,026 illegal border crossings on the Western Mediterranean route. The countries of origin of the migrants were Algeria (9,630) and Morocco (4,629). This route is also used by sub-Saharan African migrants, particularly from Mali (503) and Guinea (332). Algeria and Morocco are the starting points of the shipping routes and are close enough to the Spanish coast to encourage both smugglers and irregular migrants to take advantage of this opportunity. The difference in numbers between Algeria and Morocco can be explained by the fact that Algeria has no agreements with the EU to limit the number of these vessels, while Morocco does. Furthermore, Algeria is still ruled by a military and authoritarian government that, even with its huge oil and gas revenues, is unable to provide jobs and positive prospects for its young people.[4] Although Morocco’s economy has improved in recent years, the country’s economic potential is only available to skilled workers.[5] Many young Moroccans with no formal education find the jobs available to them low paid. They therefore want to move to Spain, where they can find better-paid jobs in construction and agriculture.

The West African route (Canary Islands, Spain)

In 2024, there were 46,877 illegal border crossings on the West African route. Migrants are using this relatively new route to travel from Morocco or Mauritania to the Canary Islands, part of Spain, which lie in the Atlantic Ocean, just off Morocco. Most of them come from West African countries (Mali: 13,530, Senegal: 9,554, Guinea: 2,953) and Morocco (3,892). The majority of sub-Saharan African migrants transiting through the Western Mediterranean and West African routes originate from the Sahel, particularly Mali. This shows that the region’s economic situation did not improve when the region’s political regimes changed from pro-France to pro-Russia. Because the military is the main economic force that suppresses competition, spreads corruption and distributes money to the most loyal groups, Sahel economies are typically weak (though rich in natural resources). Despite their political stability or sovereignty over large parts of the state (Mali, Guinea, Senegal), it is also clear that the economies of these nations suffer from misguided policies, corruption or collusion with foreign companies or forces. In addition, sub-Saharan Africa is facing demographic pressures that far outstrip its capacity to create jobs.

Summary

These show that the majority of irregular migrants in 2024 were Syrian and Afghan nationals. This could change for Syria in 2025, as the country’s new government has improved political conditions and abolished compulsory military service in the country. Lifting sanctions on Syria is necessary to improve economic conditions and regulate migration. Furthermore, as a result of the normalisation of relations with the Gulf states, many Syrian economic migrants may go to Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Kuwait. Afghanistan’s future does not look promising, as the Taliban rule the country with religious authoritarianism and a primitive economy. Economically, cooperation with China and Russia has not delivered the expected results and the situation is unlikely to improve in 2025.