Péter Magyar announced that he would ban Russian oil and gas from Hungary, as requested by Brussels. The measure would increase Hungarian families’ electricity and gas bills by three and a half times the current level. The increase in utility costs would mean an extra cost of more than half a million forints per year for an average household.

Péter Magyar’s energy policy is a scam

As part of the REPowerEU package, Brussels would ban Russian energy sources from the EU for good. The objective is one of the highest priorities of the European Commission: Ursula von der Leyen said that the Community should support Ukraine not only by arming the country and accelerating its accession, but also by completely cutting off energy supplies from Russia. The measure would entail enormous costs and divides Member States (France and Belgium have joined Hungary and Slovakia in voicing criticism), but Brussels is still insisting on its implementation. In fact, Ursula von der Leyen has already committed to purchasing large quantities of American LNG on behalf of the EU as part of the trade deal with the US.

In his speech on 20 August, Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza Party, joined the Brussels initiative and announced that if his party came to power, its energy policy would be to end dependence on Russian energy. The promise offers independence, but in reality, it leads to greater dependence and drastic price increases. Recent years in the European energy market have shown that sanctions against Russian suppliers result in more expensive and less reliable supplies. Artificially restricting supply causes prices to rise and increases sellers’ market power, creating further dependency (primarily on the US). Banning Russian energy is therefore wrong; it is better to reduce dependence through diversification, i.e. by creating opportunities for as many suppliers as possible (Russian, American or others) to enter the market. Increasing supply improves competition, which simultaneously reduces prices and dependency.

The measure proposed by the Tisza Party would drastically increase Hungarian families’ electricity and gas bills

Despite the decline in trade, the European Union continues to purchase significant amounts of Russian energy. The drop in volume is expected to cause a supply shock similar in scale to that of 2022, which, as in previous years, would lead to price spikes and then higher average prices in both the European gas and electricity markets. The price increase would put so much extra strain on the budget for the overhead cost reduction policy[1] that it would make the whole thing unsustainable, and Hungarian families would have to pay the higher market prices.

The new rates would significantly exceed the current, officially regulated price levels. Residential electricity bills would increase 3.6 times, while gas bills would increase 3.5 times. An average Hungarian family currently pays HUF 6,564 per month for electricity and HUF 9,906 for gas, meaning that their total energy costs amount to HUF 16,470. By banning Russian energy and ending the overhead cost reduction policy, this would increase to HUF 59,000, which would mean an additional monthly expense of HUF 43,000 and an annual expense of HUF 510,000.

[1] Péter Magyar has strongly criticised the Hungarian overhead cost reduction policy on several occasions, so it is likely that he would abolish it even in the current market price environment.

• Methodology

The above calculations are based on publicly available data from national and international institutions. The natural gas import volumes are based on the annual natural gas balance for 2024. [2]  We calculated the growth in Dutch natural gas exchange (TTF) prices based on demand price elasticity, as calculated in a 2022 publication by Erias & Iglesias [3], assuming that Russia’s current 19% [4] share will disappear. The residential consumer price is taken from the official MVM website. [5] In order to estimate the impact of natural gas price increases on household prices, it is necessary to determine the energy component of natural gas prices (excluding taxes, contributions, system usage fees, etc.), which is directly affected by changes in TTF prices. This was 40.97% in 2024, according to data available on Eurostat. [6] Based on current TTF natural gas prices (EUR 34.7/MWh), residential consumer prices would double (including the proportional increase in VAT). The twofold increase in TTF prices represents an overall rise of 76.1% in household utility prices, taking into account the proportion of natural gas prices, compared to the current stock market-based service, and an increase of approximately three and a half times compared to the overhead cost reduction policy. The annual consumption of an average household was defined as 1,162 m3/year based on the average consumption value published by the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority [7].

In the case of electricity, we determined a base price using the annual average prices [8] of the HUPX electricity exchange (2015-2020), then determined the price elasticity of demand based on the average price in 2024, following the period of extreme volatility that followed the outbreak of the energy crisis. The residential consumer price is taken from the official MVM website. [9] In order to estimate the impact of electricity prices on residential consumption, we determined the share of energy costs in consumption costs (excluding taxes, contributions, system usage fees, etc.), which is directly affected by changes in stock market prices. This was 24.89% in 2024, according to data available on Eurostat. [10] As a result of the estimated 2.3-fold increase, Hungarian household expenditures would rise to approximately three and a half times their value under the overhead cost reduction policy. The annual consumption of an average household was defined as 2,188 kWh/year based on the average consumption value published by MVM Next [11].

[1] Péter Magyar has strongly criticised the Hungarian overhead cost reduction policy on several occasions, so it is likely that he would abolish it even in the current market price environment.

[2] Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority (2025): Annual Natural Gas Balance (2014-2024). mekh.hu. Available: Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority

[3] Antonio F. Erias, Emma M. Iglesias (2022). Price and income elasticity of natural gas demand in Europe and the effects of lockdowns due to Covid-19. Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 44, ISSN 2211-467X, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100945.

[4] European Commission (2025). Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy. commission.europa.eu, Link: Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy – European Commission

[5] MVM Next (2025). Natural gas prices from 1 October 2023. mvmnext.hu, MVM – natural gas

[6] See: Eurostat (2025). Gas prices components for household consumers – annual data. https://doi.org/10.2908/NRG_PC_202_C

[7] Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority (2025): International price comparison, July 2025. mekh.hu. Available: Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority

[8] HUPX (2025). Annual reports. hupx.hu, available: HUPX

[9] MVM Next (2025). Universal residential service prices. mvmnext.hu, Available: MVM Next

[10] Eurostat (2025). Electricity prices components for household consumers – annual data (from 2007 onwards)[nrg_pc_204_c]

[11] MVM Next (2025). Average annual consumption. mvmnext.hu, Available: MVM Next.