At its February meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council left the base rate in place since September. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%.
In November, retail sales increased by 0.1% year on year in terms of both raw and calendar-adjusted data. Within this, compared to the same period of the previous year, sales increased by 1.2% in specialised and non-specialised food shops and by 0.5% in non-food retailing, while they decreased by 6.9% in automotive fuel retailing.
Measured up to January 2025, the value of the monthly SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides a snapshot of the current state of the Hungarian economy, was -0.2845, still increasing below its historical trend value. Trend-wise, the present calculation suggests that the growth rate of the Hungarian economy is set to remain below its historical trend level from March 2024. This means that economic growth momentum has remained lower but stable. The coming months will show the impact of the economic programmes launched in 2025 and the changing international environment on the Hungarian economy.
The other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, a short-term indicator for the future of the Hungarian economy, estimates unchanged below-trend growth by the end of the forecast horizon. The first part of the current forecast continues to project rapid and strong growth, while the second part forecasts a sharp decline and a stabilisation at a lower level.
In January 2025, consumer prices rose by 5.5% on an annual average basis.
In December median gross earnings were HUF 560,900
In December, average gross earnings in the national economy were HUF 727,700, up 11.0% compared to the same period last year. Median gross earnings were HUF 560,900, an increase of 13.1% in a year. Real earnings increased by 6.1%, while consumer prices rose by 4.6%.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
