Prosperity index

According to the April 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.6 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -16.4, while the business index strengthened to -12.2. A marked positive change in the April survey is that households’ inflation perceptions are steadily converging towards the actual rate, which is now within the central bank’s inflation target range. For businesses, the biggest positive change from March to April was in profits over the past year.

According to the March 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.9 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -14.8, while the business index to -12.9. The March survey shows a marked positive change in that households are less worried about job losses in the next six months than a month earlier. In the business sector, the largest negative change from February to March was in expectations for future exchange rate movements.

According to the February 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.0 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 0.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -12.9, while the business index to -11.8. A marked positive change seen in the February survey is that people have revised down their expectations for future inflation. At the same time, the biggest change for companies, from January to February, was the change in the price of their products over the past year.

According to the January 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.3 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index weakened to -11.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 18.0 index points and the corporate index by 10.2 index points. The January survey showed a marked positive change, with households saying they had bought more goods and services in the past year than a year earlier. And companies were positive about their future investment plans.

According to the December 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.7 index points and business economic expectations by 1.9 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -15.2, while the business index strengthened to -10.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon as well: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 14.7 index points and the corporate index by 11.2 index points. The December survey reveals the biggest positive shift in households’ inflation expectations, while businesses were most positive about the country’s overall economic situation over the past year.

According to the November 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the sense of prosperity among households did not change, while the sense of prosperity among businesses improved significantly. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped from -18.8 to -18.9, while the business index improved from -15.5 to -12.6. Over a longer horizon, the indices show a significant improvement: compared to November 2022, the household index increased by 7.5 index points and the corporate index by 8.1 index points. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, still determined by the Russia-Ukraine war, a declining but still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.

The October 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató shows that both households’ and businesses’ sense of prosperity has improved. The household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved from -23.0 to -18.8, while the business index improved from -17.5 to -15.5. The prosperity index remained in negative territory, still determined by the Russia-Ukraine war, the still higher inflation environment and the uncertainty caused by economic sanctions. A major improvement in the sense of prosperity will only be possible if the war ends, inflation continues to fall, the interest rate environment becomes more favourable and energy markets see sustained low prices.