Tisza would impose several restrictions
According to leaked information, Tisza is preparing a radical tax increase. Péter Magyar’s party would introduce a progressive, three-rate system to replace the current 15% flat-rate personal income tax, which would maintain the current rate only up to an annual gross income of HUF 5 million and would apply a rate of 22% between HUF 5 million and HUF 15 million and 33% above that. Tisza would also end tax breaks for mothers, young people and families and impose new taxes on capital gains from household savings.
Moreover, the Tisza package would not only reduce household incomes but also increase their unavoidable expenses. Péter Magyar has adopted Brussels’ objective of banning Russian energy sources into its programme. This move would significantly reduce Hungary’s room for manoeuvre in the energy market, leading to drastic price increases: fuel prices would rise above HUF 1,000, and residential electricity and gas bills would increase to three and a half times their current levels.
The leaked details of the Tisza package caused widespread outrage, so Péter Magyar tried to deny them. However, the scandal continues to rage, as several videos have revealed the party’s intention to raise taxes and even pointed out that Tisza are trying to keep their austerity measures secret until the election in order to deceive voters. Memorably, Zoltán Tarr, the party’s vice-president, said at a forum in Etyek, Hungary, that the party’s plans to raise taxes should not be discussed because then they would fail and that “first we must win the elections, then anything is possible”.
The Tisza package would hurt everyone
Tax increases, the discontinuation of reliefs, rises in electricity, gas and fuel prices, and the resulting general price increases[1] would adversely affect all Hungarians.[2] At the time of the 2026 elections, the expected average monthly gross income will be HUF 740,000. Based on the current personal income tax rate, as well as utility and fuel costs, the average citizen is left with HUF 475,000 of disposable income. At this income level, Tisza would increase personal income tax liabilities by HUF 23,000 per month. Electricity and gas bills would increase by an average of HUF 43,000 per household per month, which would mean an additional cost of HUF 18,000 per person. The increase in petrol and diesel prices would mean an additional HUF 18,000 in direct mobility costs. Finally, rising energy and fuel prices would also affect other products and services, resulting in an indirect additional inflation of 9.7 percentage points in total over three years, or a monthly cost increase of HUF 70,000 per person.[3]
Overall, it can be said that the Tisza package would place Hungarians in a situation where they are squeezed from both sides: declining incomes on the one side and rising costs on the other would narrow their livelihood options. The measures would reduce the net income of average earners by a total of 25%, from HUF 475,000 net to HUF 346,000 net, a drop of almost HUF 130,000. The Tisza package would therefore erase years of real wage growth, increase the proportion of vulnerable households, and reverse the growth of the middle class.
The above estimates are partly based on calculations from previous publications by Századvég on this topic, detailed descriptions of which can be found here and here. According to information published in the media, the tax rates planned to be introduced by the Tisza Party would be 15% for annual incomes below HUF 5 million, 22% for incomes between HUF 5 million and HUF 15 million, and 33% for incomes above that. To determine the 2026 average income, we used the latest current average earnings (HUF 704,400) published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), assuming a 5% annual growth rate, which is in line with current growth dynamics and the 13% minimum wage increase planned for this year. Based on these figures, under the current single-rate tax system, an average earner (monthly gross income of HUF 739,620) will receive a net income of HUF 508,410 in 2026. Under the multi-rate tax system envisaged by the Tisza Party, this would be reduced to HUF 485,800 per month, which means an annual net loss of HUF 271,280.
We also quantified the impact of previously proposed measures, such as the ban on Russian energy imports and the discontinuation of the overhead cost reduction policy, on net income, estimating the indirect impact of oil and energy prices on core inflation. To model the impact of energy prices on core inflation, we used the calculations of Chafwehé, Colciago, and Priftis (2024), which estimated a coefficient of approximately 0.03 in the case of a supply-side energy price shock. Based on one of our previous publications, the price increase resulting from the disappearance of Russian crude oil would bring the average price to HUF 1,040.9, which means that the combined effect of gas prices and average fuel prices would result in a 9.7% increase in core inflation. To quantify the impact of the fuel price increase, we used the change in gasoline prices, which have the greatest weight in passenger car traffic. We calculated the number of cars per capita based on the latest figures from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). Assuming an average annual mileage of 16,000 km and fuel consumption of 7 liters/100 km, a Hungarian driver uses an average of 93.3 liters of fuel per month. For comparability, we calculated the increase in utility costs per household on a per capita basis, using the average household size reported in the Hungarian Central Statistical Office’s census data and the projected population.
[1] The rise in energy prices is reflected in the cost of all products and services, although to varying degrees, and this is causing general inflationary pressures.
[2] For example, even if the tax burden on a low-income employee who is not eligible for relief does not increase, the rise in public utility costs would still have a significant impact on this person. Previous research has shown that Tisza’s public utility programme alone would render more than one million Hungarian households insolvent.
[3] The extent of tax relief and capital gains varies significantly from person to person, so we did not take their discontinuation into account in our calculations.
