At its August meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council did not change the base rate, which has been in place since September. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%.
In June, retail sales rose by 2.9% based on raw data and by 3.0% based on calendar-adjusted data compared to the same period last year.
In June 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 3.7%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 3.9%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 2.5% year on year in June.
Measured up to July 2025, the value of the monthly SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides a snapshot of the current state of the Hungarian economy, was -0.4799. This means that the Hungarian economy is still growing at a rate below its historical trend rate. The indicator showed a weaker economic performance compared to the previous month.
The other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, which is a short-term leading indicator for the outlook of the Hungarian economy, continued to forecast a local trough in growth below the historical trend for the autumn of 2025, which is expected to be followed by an improvement. For the first month of 2026, the forecast continued to estimate economic growth above the historical trend and further strengthening until the end of the forecast period.
In July 2025, consumer prices increased by 4.3% on average, compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in a month. The seasonally adjusted core inflation rate was 4.0% on the same period last year.
Real earnings rose by 4.8% in June
In June 2025, average gross earnings in the national economy were HUF 704,400, 9.7% higher than in the same period of the previous year. Median gross earnings were HUF 567,700, an increase of 10.3% in a year. Average net earnings were 9.6% higher than a year earlier, reaching HUF 484,200. Real earnings increased by 4.8%, while consumer prices rose by 4.6%.
In June, the increase in average gross earnings was 9.7% in the business sector, 9.5% in the public sector and 10.7% in the non-profit sector. In June, the highest average gross earnings were recorded in the non-profit sector, at HUF 730,000. The same figure was HUF 704,300 in the corporate sector and HUF 695,200 in the public sector.
Gross and real earnings of full-time employees rose in all quintiles compared to the same period last year. The fourth quintile showed the highest increase in earnings: average gross earnings rose by 10.2% between January and June compared with the same period last year. This dynamic is explained mainly by the wage-increasing effect caused by labour shortage in certain occupations.
In Q2 2025, the average gross earnings of full-time employees stood at HUF 699,960, an increase of 9.0% compared to the same period of the previous year. Over the same period, median gross earnings stood at HUF 536,500, 8.9% higher than a year earlier. Average net earnings increased by 8.9% compared to a year earlier, reaching HUF 480,790.
We expect unemployment to continue to fall over the next two years (2025: 4.1%, 2026: 3.6%), while gross wages are forecast to rise by 9.5% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
