The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
One sub-index of the household prosperity index strengthened, while three sub-indices weakened month on month in June 2025. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, rising from -2.8 in the previous month to -4.9, while perceptions of the economic environment weakened from -30.7 to -32.0 in June, and assessments of the financial situation declined from -11.3 to -12.8. Meanwhile, the sub-index for inflation trends strengthened from -73.1 to -64.6.
The June 2025 household prosperity survey found a significant positive shift in households’ inflation expectations compared to May.
When asked, “What do you think the average inflation rate will be in the next year?”, respondents gave more favourable answers in June. “Less than one percent” was the response of 0.7% of respondents (after 0.6% in May), while 4.6% (1.6 percentage points more than in the previous month) answered “between 1% and 2%”. The central bank’s target range (2-4%) is expected by 14.7% of respondents, which is a 2.5 percentage point increase compared to the previous month’s share. 4-5% is expected by 18.9% (+2.5 percentage points), 5-6% by 12.2% (-3.5 percentage points), 6-7% by 7.1% (-0.7 percentage points), while 33.4% (-3.7 percentage points) expect price increases above 7%.
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by age group, three of the five categories show a strengthening, while two show weakening. We measured a 1.5 index point increase in the 18-29 age group, a 2.4 index point increase in the 30-39 age group, and a 0.7 index point increase in the 40-49 age group. We detected a decline of 2.5 index points in the 50–59 age group and 4.1 index points in those aged 60 and over. Thus, the perceived prosperity is strongest among 18-29 year olds, with an index of -17.7, while it is weakest among 50-59 year olds, whose perceived prosperity stands at -20.7.
For the business survey, two sub-indices improved, and two deteriorated in June. The production environment sub-index improved from -11.9 to -10.9 index points, while the industrial environment sub-index went from -9.8 to -5.1. The economic environment sub-index weakened from -32.2 in the previous month to -32.7, and the business environment sub-index improved from -25.7 to -26.4.
In June 2025, the biggest positive change for businesses was the future demand for products and services produced in their industry.
When asked, “How do you expect demand for the products/services produced in your industry to develop over the next year?”, company managers gave much more positive answers overall in June than in the May forecast. This month, 4.4% of companies (down from 7.3% in May) expect demand to fall significantly. 22.8% of respondents (-0.7 percentage points) expect a slight decline in demand in the industry over the next year. 42.3% (+0.2 percentage points) expect demand to remain unchanged, 25.0% (+2.6 percentage points) expect demand to increase slightly, while 3.0% (+0.7 percentage points) expect demand to increase significantly.
Looking at the breakdown of companies by sector, it can be seen that, on average, the sense of prosperity improved in two, while it worsened in three. This month, we measured a 1.6-point increase in the prosperity index for services, a 0.9-point increase for construction, a 2.5-point decrease for agriculture, a 1.1-point decrease for industry, and a 0.6-point decrease for trade. In June, the strongest sense of prosperity was recorded in agriculture (-11.0) and the weakest in trade (-19.0).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
