Public opinion says Hungary would be worse off if Ukraine had the chance to join the EU sooner

On 1 April, the EU flagship initiative, the “Ukraine2EU” project, was officially launched to help Ukraine successfully complete the EU accession process and prepare for EU membership. Denmark, Lithuania and Sweden are also co-funding the project, which will provide strategic guidance and expertise to help Ukraine prepare for EU membership. In the wake of these developments, Századvég conducted a survey on what the Hungarian public thinks would be the consequences for Hungary of Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the EU.

Brussels uses another tool to push for Ukraine’s fast-track accession

The forced acceleration of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (as Századvég’s March analysis pointed out) is a dominant topic in the Hungarian and European public discourse, but a significant majority of Hungarians do not support Ukraine’s accession to the EU with responsibility in the current economic and political circumstances. However, with the launch of the Ukraine2EU project, preparations for Ukraine’s accession have reached a new stage. EU Ambassador to Ukraine, Katarína Mathernová, stressed that the European Union stands firmly by Ukraine on its path towards EU membership and will ensure “steady progress” towards European integration. Marie Bjerre, Denmark’s Minister for European Affairs, stressed that Ukraine’s future lies in the EU and that the sooner Ukraine can join the EU, the “stronger and more stable” the whole European continent will be.

Financial burdens, rising crime and illegal arms trafficking-Ukraine’s EU membership would cause many problems for Hungarians

Századvég estimated in March that Ukraine’s accession would impose a significant burden on Hungary. The direct costs of fast-tracking the accession of our eastern neighbour to the EU would be close to 2,000 billion forints per year, which would mean almost half a million forints per household. The latest research shows that Hungarians clearly perceive the potential drawbacks of Ukraine’s possible accession. According to the survey,

72% of Hungarians said that Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the European Union would be rather disadvantageous for Hungary. The proportion of those who would see this as beneficial is estimated at 22%.

It is important to stress that accelerating Ukraine’s accession to the EU would have other negative consequences for Hungary, in addition to the financial burden. The freedom of settlement and the free movement of persons that would come with Ukraine’s EU membership entail a number of direct security risks affecting the daily lives of Hungarians. Among other things, there is concern that ex-soldiers with combat experience who are unwilling or unable to find work in the labour market will seek illegal livelihoods, thus strengthening organised crime. In addition, Interpol has also warned that some of the Western weapons destined for Ukraine, including heavy weapons, could be diverted to the black market and could pose a serious threat once criminal groups get hold of them. In light of this,

it is less surprising that two thirds (66%) of respondents to the survey say that the accelerated accession of Ukraine to the European Union would pose a risk to Hungary, while 32% say it would not.