The Future of American Hegemony from a Hungarian Perspective

The United States undeniably became the central player in the global power system in the second half of the 20th century. American economic, military, and cultural dominance significantly shaped the post-Cold War world order, and the concept of the “American Dream” that emerged in the 19th-20th centuries entered the public consciousness as a kind of universal success model. However, recent geopolitical processes have significantly redrawn the international balance of power, casting doubt on American hegemony. In this context, it is particularly relevant to examine how Hungarian society perceives the United States’ role in world politics, what attitudes it has towards the American superpower, and how it sees the future development of Washington’s global influence. Századvég’s new, comprehensive public opinion poll provides a unique insight into these issues, revealing the contemporary perception of the USA among different groups in Hungarian society.

USA: Still the world’s leading power in the eyes of Hungarians

One of the most important findings of our research is that for the majority of Hungarians, the United States remains the most dominant player in the international economic and alliance systems. 57 percent of respondents name the USA as the most influential global power, far outpacing the field. This clearly shows that in the eyes of Hungarian public opinion, the United States appears as a superpower.

The USA’s prominent status also stands out in international comparison. Hungarians consider American influence to be the most decisive at present, perceiving it to be much stronger than the impact of the European Union, China or Russia on international politics. The EU’s lag in this comparison is particularly striking: the largest share of respondents place the European Union in the least influential category.

However, the perception of American superpower status is nuanced by the fault lines that emerge along various socio-demographic variables. The assessment of the European Union’s global influence is more favorable among the young and those with lower education levels. In contrast, the voters of the opposition, the elderly, and those with higher education are more optimistic about the U.S. role. Those with higher education also expect China’s geopolitical weight to be greater. Regarding Russia’s geopolitical significance, those with relatively low levels of education and those who support the governing parties are less opposed than average.

These results clearly illustrate the heterogeneity of Hungarian society’s geopolitical perceptions. political affiliations, age and education are all factors that significantly differentiate the assessment of global power relations. Although the perception of the United States’ primacy in world politics is dominant, it is by no means exclusive.

Doubts about the durability of American hegemony?

Other findings of the research also confirm the heterogeneity of Hungarian society’s geopolitical perceptions of the United States: Hungarian society is divided on the future of the United States’ geopolitical power.

41 percent of respondents project a stagnation of the US role in world politics over the next decade, while nearly one-fifth predict its decline. This suggests that some of the public opinion questions the durability of American dominance and more expect a gradual decline in Washington’s global influence, in parallel with the rise of emerging powers.

China’s perception is particularly noteworthy in this regard. The majority of respondents expect Beijing’s influence to strengthen further in the coming years, with a third anticipating a particularly significant power expansion in China’s case. This indicates that Hungarian society assumes a realignment of global power relations, towards an emerging multipolar world order, where the Asian great power may emerge as an increasingly serious challenger to the United States.

Of course, expectations for the future are not entirely uniform either, and certain fault lines can be observed here too in Hungarian public opinion. The most pronounced fault line emerges along party sympathy: among pro-government voters, the share of those forecasting a decrease in the leading role of the US and Europe is higher, while among the opposition, more expect an increase in the weight of Washington and Europe. Similarly, pro-government sympathizers are generally more optimistic about the future global position of China and somewhat of Russia than the opposition.

The fading glow of the “American Dream”?

An important lesson from the research is that the concept of the “American Dream” implicitly continues to have a strong impact on Hungarians’ image of the United States. The USA lives in the minds of Hungarians as the land of freedom, democracy and opportunity. According to the results of the 2024 survey, the majority of respondents associate positive values and achievements with the USA, such as freedom (48 percent), democracy (28 percent), business success (47 percent), scientific innovation (46 percent) or cultural “radiation” (movies 78 percent, music 61 percent, celebrities 91 percent). Thus, for a significant proportion of Hungarians, American culture still appears as an attractive and inspiring model.

At the same time, it is also noticeable that the perception of the United States has lost some of its luster in recent years. Concepts traditionally associated with America, such as freedom or democracy, are no longer as clearly linked to the U.S. in the minds of Hungarians as they once were. In parallel, other countries, especially China and Hungary, have improved their perceptions in many dimensions. In the case of China, the dynamic economic development and the growth of innovation performance have contributed to increasing international recognition. In the case of Hungary, we can observe the foregrounding of moral values, the perception of improving public security and the strengthening of social security.

The transformation of domestic and international relations has thus brought with it the survival of the American dream, but also its gradual revaluation. The perception of the USA in terms of freedom, opportunity, and success is no longer as unanimous or exclusive as it was in previous decades. The strengthening of challengers and the foregrounding of certain American social problems nuance the overall picture, without fundamentally questioning the outstanding symbolic significance of the United States.

In this context, the differences by party preference in Hungarian society are particularly interesting. According to the survey, pro-government voters rate Hungary’s performance significantly (30-40 percentage points) more positively in key areas such as freedom, democracy, or social security. Opposition sympathizers, on the other hand, tend to find these values in the United States, Germany, and Austria. This polarization clearly indicates the decisive role of domestic politics and political identities in the perception of foreign countries.

The relationship between the “American and Hungarian dreams” is thus characterized by both continuity and change. While the U.S. social model remains an important reference point, there has also been an appreciation of “Hungarian reality.” Balancing between Western orientation and national pride is likely to be a lasting element of Hungarians’ geopolitical attitudes, reflecting the challenge of reconciling globalization and patriotism.

US image in a changing world order

Summarizing the main lessons of the research, it can be stated that the perception of the United States’ superpower status and the idea of the “American Dream” are still strongly present in the thinking of Hungarian society, but the global realignment of recent years and the rise of emerging powers have nuanced this picture.

For the majority of Hungarians, the USA remains a source of freedom, democracy, economic success and cultural radiation, but these dimensions are no longer as clearly linked to the American model as they once were. Particularly noteworthy in this regard is the improvement in the perception of Hungary and China, indicating growing “self-confidence” in Hungarian society and the perception of a shift toward a multipolar world order.

Expectations about the future of American hegemony also reflect a sense of change. Although the majority of Hungarians still consider the U.S. to be the most influential global player, many expect Washington’s dominance to stagnate or even decline over the next decade.

At the same time, the research also makes it clear that Hungarian society cannot be considered unified in its perception of the U.S. and other great powers. Pro-government voters are much more positive about domestic conditions, while the opposition is more markedly oriented to the West and has a more favorable perception of Washington’s position. This pattern points to the identity-shaping role of domestic politics in shaping foreign policy attitudes.

Overall, the Hungarian perception of the United States is characterized by a peculiar blend of continuity and change. Although its luster has faded, the “American Dream” still lives on and is attractive to many, though it increasingly faces challenges from other social models and geopolitical narratives. The differentiation of the U.S. image, the appreciation of Hungary, and the sharpening of political fault lines are likely to remain lasting trends, reflecting the internal dynamics of a globalizing but also fragmenting world order.