At its meeting on 16 December, the Monetary Council of the central bank left the base rate unchanged from the level in effect since September last year, meaning that it remains at 6.5%. The upper end of the interest rate corridor remained at 7.5% and the lower end at 5.5%.
In October, retail sales increased by 3.1% year on year on both a raw and calendar-adjusted basis.
In October 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 1.2%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 5.2%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 0.6% year on year.
The monthly value of the SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides feedback on the current state of the Hungarian economy, showed month-on-month improvement in November 2025. The indicator shows that we have reached the lowest point in terms of growth below the historical trend and that a slow improvement has begun. This means that the growth rate of the Hungarian economy has slowly started to approach its historical trend rate.
The other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, a short-term indicator for the future of the Hungarian economy, projected an improving growth rate in its latest forecast. Within the forecast period between December 2025 and August 2026, it measured a growth rate below the historical trend in the first period, then a gradual improvement, reaching a value above the historical trend by January 2026, which will remain until the end of the forecast period.
In November 2025, consumer prices increased by 3.8% on average—compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month on month. The seasonally adjusted core inflation rate was 4.0% on the same period last year. In December, the HUF weakened by 1.3% against the Euro, by 1.5% against the Swiss franc, and by 0.3% against the US dollar.
In October, retail sales increased by 3.1% year on year on both a raw and calendar-adjusted basis.
In October 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 1.2%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 5.2%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 0.6% year on year.
In food retailing, sales volumes increased by 2.9% in non-specialised food and beverages shops, while the volume in specialised food, beverage and tobacco stores decreased by 4.3% compared to the same period last year.
In non-food retailing, the volume of mixed range of manufactured goods decreased by 6.0%, and the turnover of textile products, clothing and footwear increased by 8.6% compared to the same period last year. In non-specialised shops dealing in manufactured goods, turnover in pharmaceutical and medical goods shops decreased by 0.9%, turnover in second-hand goods decreased by 2.0%, and turnover in books, newspapers, and stationery decreased by 0.3%. The sales volume of computers and other specialised goods fell by 0.3%. Among the other categories, the 10.8% increase in the volume index of mail order and internet retailing, and the 11.8% increase in the turnover volume of cosmetics shops stand out.
Overall, the largest growth was observed in non-food retail trade, particularly in cosmetics shops, where volume increased by 11.8%. Other categories showed a more moderate increase.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
