At its September meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council did not change the base rate, which has been in place since September 2024. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%.
In July, retail sales increased by 1.7% year on year on both a raw and calendar-adjusted basis.
In July 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 2.3%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 2.9%. In fuel retailing, sales fell by 2.4% year on year, in July.
Measured up to August 2025, the value of the monthly SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides a snapshot of the current state of the Hungarian economy, was -0.6894. This means that the Hungarian economy is still growing at a rate below its historical trend rate. The indicator weakened from the previous month, meaning that the economy’s growth rate is moving away from its historical trend value.
The other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, which is a short-term leading indicator for the outlook of the Hungarian economy, continued to forecast a trough in growth below the historical trend for the autumn of 2025. This will be followed by a period of strengthening, pushing economic growth above its historical trend in the first months of 2026. Subsequently, until the end of the forecast period, the growth rate of the Hungarian economy will remain above the historical trend, although with minor fluctuations.
In August 2025, consumer prices increased by 4.3% on average, compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer prices did not change in a month. The seasonally adjusted core inflation rate was 3.9% on the same period last year.
In September, the Hungarian currency strengthened
Hungarian money and foreign exchange market indicators have strengthened over the past month. The HUF strengthened by 1.5% against the Euro, by 1.6% against the Swiss franc, and by 2.2% against the US dollar. This means that at the end of September 2025, 1 euro was worth 391 forints, 1 US dollar was worth 332 forints and 1 Swiss franc was worth 417 forints. From the previous month, sovereign debt held by foreigners decreased by HUF 274 billion to HUF 6,829 billion by the end of September.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
