macroeconomic forecast

In 2023, the volume of Hungarian gross domestic product (GDP) fell slightly by 0.7%, while growth is likely to remain subdued in the following years. We expect Hungarian economic output to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. This year and next will be marked by a slow recovery process.

The Hungarian economy grew by 4.6% in 2022. Data from the first three quarters of 2023 suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.7% in 2023. We expect growth to be 2.7% and 3.1% in the next two years, which implies an overall slow pick-up after this year’s economic downturn.

In 2022, the Hungarian economy grew by 4.6%. Data from the first two quarters of this year suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.3% in 2023. 2024 and 2025 are expected to produce modest growth rates, 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.

The performance of the Hungarian economy grew by 4.6 percent in 2022, while we estimate that it may expand by 0.6 percent in 2023 and 3.4 percent in 2024. Since our previous forecast in December 2022, we have revised our growth outlook downwards. Downside risks include declining retail sales, uncertainties over EU funds and a high interest rate environment.