Migration and spatial structure

In Syria, the past few weeks have seen the new Sunni Arab government’s forces capture most of the territory previously controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north and northeast of the country. In response to military operations against Syrian Kurds, Syrian Arabs and Kurds clashed on European streets in Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom in mid-January. These clashes were the first that clearly erupted because of the new balance of power in Syria and disrupted public order in Europe. Until recently, the radical manifesto of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) mobilised Kurds in Europe, but now the latest military operation in Syria is stirring up emotions. This study describes the background to these clashes, their impact on European migration dynamics, and the risks and challenges they pose to integration.

With social unrest intensifying in Iran and a second war between Israel and Iran becoming increasingly likely, Iran and the Shia-Sunni power struggle in the Middle East have once again become the focus of attention in regional and global politics. The first Iran-Israel war (13-24 June 2025) weakened the Iranian regime but did not threaten its survival, especially its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Iran's second strategic asset, beyond missiles, is the Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, which also survived the 2025 attacks and can continue to play a role in the region’s power struggles. First, we need to understand the divide between Sunnis and Shias, its background and current role in Middle Eastern geopolitics, and how it influences the current power struggles between Shias and Sunnis in the Middle East. In light of this, we will then discuss Iran’s ambitions and who is threatened by Iran's expansion. Lastly, we will examine the possibilities for regime change in Iran. The United States and Israel are not the only countries that support regime change in Iran; countries such as Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Sunni Arab states (the Gulf states, Jordan, and Syria) would also benefit from it. For the United States, a war against Iran or a regime change, if it were to occur, would make the US the only significant player in the region, thereby minimising the influence of the Russian-Chinese axis on oil and Middle East politics.

Nigeria has reached a critical turning point, the consequences of which are profound not only for West Africa and the Sahel region, but also for European security policy, energy diversification, and migration management. As Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, Nigeria’s internal dynamics (demographic, political and economic) extend far beyond its borders. However, this regional power is under increasing pressure, threatening to destabilise both the country itself and the wider Sahel region, particularly in a region where Western influence has been dramatically reduced in recent years following the geopolitical transformation of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

On 11 November 2025, the European Commission published its first annual report on asylum and migration in Europe, which aims to present the progress made in implementing the new pact on migration and asylum that will come into force in 2026. The long-awaited and delayed report raises more questions than it answers regarding the direction of migration management in the EU. The document covered the three main pillars of the EU’s immigration policy (responsibility, solidarity, and return) without making any significant progress in these areas. It welcomed the 35% drop in illegal border crossings, without pointing out that this drop was due to the restrictive policy applied at the gateway to the Balkans. Furthermore, it ignored Hungary’s contribution, which is essential to reducing the number of illegal border crossings on the Balkan route. In this analysis, we look at these elements of the report in detail.

Every year, millions of migrants (illegal immigrants, students, workers and new holders of family reunification visas) arrive in Europe, increasing the demand for housing and consequently the cost of housing for European citizens. Most analysts identify a number of factors that have led to the current crisis. However, they agree that migration is a significant factor that has made the situation worse. Ultimately, Europe’s lower and middle classes are bearing the cost of this crisis, while rental property owners are benefiting from rising demand for homes and rising rents. European governments no longer invest in housing and have no strategy for accommodating the millions of migrants arriving in waves since 2015. In this context, rising homelessness and mounting integration challenges are becoming increasingly apparent and serious in major cities across Western Europe. In this analysis, we briefly describe what research has found about the relationship between migration and the housing crisis, and then illustrate the links between migration and the housing crisis using the examples of two countries: the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Sweden, once a “model humanitarian state”, has now become a victim of its own migration policy: one-third of the population is no longer ethnically Swedish, the country has 59 no-go zones, and, after Albania, it has the highest number of gang-related deaths in Europe. In 2023, the Swedish government was forced to radically change its policy, reducing the number of asylum seekers from 163,000 to 9,000, while offering USD 34,000 in support to those who voluntarily return home.

In 2025, the UK once again became Europe’s top migration destination, creating a crisis that compounded the Labour government’s poor performance on security and the economy. Following a discussion of the latest statistics on the rise in illegal immigration, we present the causes, the measures being taken to address them and their likely impact on both the UK and Europe.

In recent years, Denmark’s strict immigration laws and proactive integration initiatives have made it unique among Western European EU countries. One of the unique features that distinguishes Denmark is the recognition of the negative consequences of migration, such as the existence of “ghettos”, which are areas designated by the government on “ghetto lists” and inhabited by immigrants.