The December survey showed the most positive shift in households’ expectations regarding their savings over the next year. The most significant positive change for businesses was the improvement in profits over the past year.
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. A major improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
Two sub-indices of the household prosperity index strengthened, while two sub-indices weakened month on month in December 2025. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, with a deterioration from 0.0 in the previous month to -0.4. In December, perceptions of the economic environment deteriorated from -16.5 in the previous month to -17.2, while the inflation perception sub-index improved from -52.1 to -50.1, and the sub-index measuring the perception of one’s financial situation also improved, from -8.0 to -7.3.
The December 2025 household prosperity survey found a significant (trend-like) positive shift in households’ perception of their financial situation.
In December, respondents gave a much more optimistic answer (+4.4 index points) to the question “Do you expect your household to save more or less in the next year than it has so far?”. After 4.3% in the previous month, 4.2 % of respondents said they would be able to save much more in the coming year. 21.1% (+2.4 percentage points) expect to save slightly more over the next year. 41.2% of households (1.3 percentage points) expect to save the same amount, 16.5% of respondents (−0.5 percentage points) expect to save slightly less, while 14.3% of respondents (−3.4 percentage points) expect to save much less in the coming year.
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by age group, an improvement in three of five categories is apparent. We measured an improvement of 0.7 index points among 18-29 year olds, 3.8 index points among 30-39 year olds, and 2.0 index points among those over 60. We measured a decrease of 6.2 index points among 40-49 year olds and 1.0 index points among 50-59 year olds. Therefore, in December, the strongest sense of prosperity was among those aged 60 and over (-5.4 index points), while the weakest was among those aged 40–49 (-20.0). For other age groups, the index values were as follows: 18-29 year olds: -7.6, 30-39 year olds: -10.7, 50-59 year olds: -13.3 index points.
In the December business survey, two sub-indices rose and two fell. The business environment indicator rose from -15.8 to -15.0, while the industry environment indicator strengthened from -0.3 in the previous month to 1.1. The economic environment sub-index fell from -18.4 to -19.4, and the production environment sub-index fell from -7.0 to -7.1.
In December 2025, the largest positive change was measured for businesses’ profits over the past year.
When asked, “How were your business’ profits over the past 12 months?”, managers gave much more positive answers in December (+3.9 index points) than they did in November. This month, only 12.9% of businesses said their profits had fallen significantly over the past year, down from 16.2% in November. A slight decrease was reported by 25.4% of respondents (-0.7 percentage points), while 38.2% of businesses surveyed reported unchanged profits (+3.2 percentage points). 19.6% of businesses reported a slight increase in profits (-0.8 percentage points), while 2.3% (+0.8 percentage points) reported a significant increase in profits.
An analysis of the sectoral breakdown of businesses shows that the sense of prosperity improved on average in two sectors, while it declined in three. This month, construction recorded a +1.4 point change in the prosperity index, services +0.4, industry −0.6, agriculture −1.0, and trade −2.2. In December, the best sense of prosperity was measured in agriculture (-5.4), while the weakest in trade (-14.0).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
