At the conference, Kinga Kenyeres, Director General of the Századvég Foundation, delivered a welcoming speech. She emphasised that Századvég had, for the eleventh time, examined developments in European public opinion on issues affecting the population. She stressed that the past decade was marked by a series of crises, the migration crisis, the coronavirus pandemic, the energy crisis, the inflation crisis, and the Russia-Ukraine war, which are still ongoing and continue to shape Europe’s present.
She noted that we are on the threshold of a new era, when the existing frameworks of institutions and values no longer provide convincing answers to the challenges of the present. Stability is increasingly being replaced by uncertainty, and Europeans feel that political decisions are not in line with their everyday experiences. She added that the weakening of liberalism’s hegemony is not an unexpected development, but rather a process that has been going on for some time.
She pointed out that the current crisis is partly internal in nature and stems from conflicts within the previous political and ideological frameworks. A political realignment can be observed worldwide, including in Europe, which prioritises security, stability and community resilience, while national-based political approaches that promote development based on their own interests and values are gaining strength.
Survey results indicate that citizens no longer clearly perceive the European Union’s earlier promise of prosperity and professional rationality through centralised decision-making. She drew attention to the fact that people see economic performance as getting worse and trust in the EU institutions is falling. She added that this year’s results indicate a loss of confidence on a structural level, not just the consequences of a few bad decisions.
Kinga Kenyeres also pointed out that a significant portion of the population perceives an excessive concentration of power in Brussels, while the demand for Member State sovereignty is growing. She added that according to the Project Europe survey, Europeans are pessimistic, and many see the future of the next generations as less promising. In closing, she emphasised that the most important question is how to transform feelings of uncertainty into a capacity for action, and how to bring decision-making closer to the people.
Áron Hidvégi, Vice President of Századvég Foundation, recalled Mark Rutte’s earlier statement that “we must prepare for a war like the one our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced”. He illustrated this with a personal story in which he shared his grandfather’s memories of the world war, which, according to Áron Hidvégi, are stories that no one should ever have to relive.
Findings of the survey show that, when it comes to war, Europe is acting just as it did in 2016 regarding migration, meaning that we Hungarians are not right now, but we will be right. The latest survey shows that European society is beginning to sober up.
This is proven by the fact that 63% of Europeans are concerned about the war, and it is clear that the trend of sending arms has reversed since 2023. Currently, the majority opinion in 17 countries is “no”, with only Sweden supporting the deployment of troops. Eleven countries do not support Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and none of the Member States support accelerated accession.
The survey focused on empirical indicators in the field of migration. According to 57% of respondents, immigration in Europe has become uncontrollable. 50% of respondents feel that immigrants remain loyal to their countries of origin, meaning that they view their destination country as a place to earn money rather than a new home.
Áron Hidvégi also mentioned that the survey asked European citizens whether they considered the preservation of national culture or multicultural values to be more important. This clearly showed that 57% of respondents were patriotic. He particularly emphasised that Hungary is the only country in Europe where people are not afraid of the weakening of national culture. He also spoke about the political landscape, saying that since 2016, the patriotic side has been growing stronger, meaning that there are more and more forces critical of the European Union.
In his speech, Tamás Deutsch, MEP, discussed the political interpretation of opinion polls and the framework of European political debates. He stressed that research often appears in public discourse as a tool for propaganda or manipulation, whereas the aim of a professional approach is to present social reality. He emphasised that the opinions and values of voters must be a decisive factor in political decision-making.
In his speech, he also touched upon the political expectations of the European Union and positions regarding the war. He argued that the concepts of pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law, and pro-EU are distorted in the political discourse in Brussels, while consistently describing the Hungarian government’s position as pro-peace. Századvég’s Project Europe survey shows a patriotic Europe, as the vast majority of voters agree with sovereigntist political values. In a historical context, he referred to Hungary’s role in the EU and also to the fact that he considers the representation of national interests and the will of voters to be of primary importance.
A central topic of his speech was that, in his opinion, there is growing tension in current European debates between the sovereignty of Member States and the EU’s political and empire-building aspirations, particularly with regard to war and escalation.
Dr. Péter Pillók, Director of the Social Trends and Media Research Institute of the Századvég Foundation gave a speech with the title “Economic Assessment of Households in Europe and Hungary”. He highlighted that data from the 27 Member States of the European Union and the United Kingdom showed widespread pessimism about the future, particularly regarding the prospects for future generations.
He emphasised that Europeans are uncertain about the future of their own countries’ economy, while 40% of Hungarians are optimistic about the future. He added that a significant proportion of respondents believe that things are moving in the wrong direction in their country, reflecting pessimism about the country’s economic prospects, while households’ assessment of their own financial situation is somewhat more favorable.
He also presented survey results regarding households’ incomes. 78% of Hungarians said they could make a living on their current income, the best rate in the entire European Union. He highlighted that utility costs have caused difficulties for around a quarter of the European population in recent times, while 86% of Hungarians have not been affected by this problem. He added that nearly one-third of households in the EU have difficulty repaying their loans, and many have been unable to pay their utility bills on time due to a lack of funds.
In the second half of his speech, Péter Pillók presented the stratification of Hungarian society and social networks based on the results of a questionnaire survey of 20,000 people conducted using the CATI method, as well as 12 focus group interviews. In addition to the characteristics of individual social layers, he also spoke about the profile, financial situation and credit exposure of social layers. He emphasised the role of social networks and explained that a significant proportion of Hungarians are willing to help both friends and strangers, especially in crisis situations. He also added that community cohesion is also significant in Hungarian towns and villages.
The conference section on “The European Welfare Model in Danger” began with a roundtable discussion under the title “Is Europe on the Verge of a New Era?”. The panel participants were Dr. István Nagy, Minister of Agriculture, and Dr. Bence Tuzson, Minister of Justice. The discussion was moderated by Kinga Kenyeres, Director General of Századvég Foundation.
Kinga Kenyeres presented the latest findings of the Project Europe survey, according to which 68% of respondents believe that the European Union’s competitiveness is declining, while 74% feel that the European elite does not care about the people.
In response, Bence Tuzson emphasised that many people do not feel secure about their future because ideological considerations override long-term strategic thinking. The Mercosur agreement is one such example. In his words, “every major system faces a test of strength when it enters a crisis, and it seems that the EU is unable to pass this test”.
István Nagy pointed out that the survey results also indicate that the series of crises are causing internal uncertainty among people, who are waiting for clear answers. In his opinion, the current functioning of the EU does not serve to strengthen economic competitiveness, while the role of the common agricultural policy, which could be the basis for common self-sufficiency, is being pushed into the background. He added: “Agriculture, which is a way of life, cannot be restarted overnight”.
In response to a suggestion by Kinga Kenyeres that rules can be rewritten during wartime, Bence Tuzson reflected that war obscures many issues and can easily lead to a downward spiral, which has been seen before in history and has not ended well. István Nagy emphasised that the will of the people must be taken into account in decision-making, but in his opinion, Ursula von der Leyen is not working on this. He put it this way: “”Its current leaders have run the European Union aground. The question is whether the ship on which we have run aground will break apart or whether it will hold out until the tide comes in and we can float away. This tide is the political will of the people”.
Dr. László Kökény, senior consultant at Századvég, talked about how the latest surveys show that the European Union is being viewed more and more critically. He said that 46% of respondents believe that the EU is stagnating, while 36% believe that it is in decline. The negative perception is even stronger in terms of competitiveness: 68 percent believe that the EU’s performance is deteriorating.
László Kökény also pointed out that opinions on the war and sanctions policy are particularly divisive. 61% of respondents are dissatisfied with EU decisions on this issue. He emphasised that Denmark was the only Member State where a measurable majority was satisfied.
56% of respondents expressed criticism regarding the international trade situation, which, in his opinion, shows that people feel uncertain about the EU’s scope for economic action. He specifically pointed out that 51% of European citizens believe that Brussels regulations hinder rather than help entrepreneurs in their own countries. According to statements made at the conference, many consider excessive centralisation to be a problem that does not adequately serve the interests of economic actors.
At the end of his presentation, László Kökény drew attention to the fact that all this is leading to increased economic and livelihood anxiety, which is now a decisive factor in public opinion regarding the European Union.
The roundtable discussion on “Europe in decline – the situation of the Hungarian economy and households” featured Soma Csaba Lehotzky, Head of Research at the Economic Trends Research Institute of Századvég Foundation, who spoke with the participants. The discourse focused on the competitiveness challenges facing the European Union and economic developments in Hungary.
Erik Bánki, Member of the Hungarian Parliament and Chairman of its Economic Committee, explained that expenditures related to Ukraine had diverted significant resources, while the global weight of the EU economy had declined significantly in recent decades. He emphasised that restoring competitiveness would require investments of hundreds of billions of euros, but that the necessary reforms identified in the Draghi report were progressing very slowly.
Dr. Árpád Kovács, member of the Prime Minister’s Strategic Advisory Board, said that economic decision-making is taking place in an increasingly complex environment, which requires alternative planning and increased risk management at both the political leadership and public levels. Much of Hungary’s trade takes place within the region, so it is impossible to isolate ourselves from events happening around us. Nevertheless, we have made a number of impressive economic achievements.
André Palóc, spokesperson for the Ministry for National Economy, mentioned several positive economic indicators in relation to GDP growth, rising real incomes and employment rate trends. He emphasised the role of tax policy, especially the tax on extra profits, and the social impact of family policy measures.
Piroska Szalai, Commissioner of the Prime Minister, highlighted the increase in savings, the decrease in indebtedness and the reduction in the risk of poverty. Significantly, the greatest improvement in recent years has been in the lower and middle income groups, while the stability and adaptability of society as a whole has emerged as a strategically important issue in the implementation of the government’s economic policy strategy. Over the past decade, 1.3 million people fewer were threatened by living close to the poverty line.
In his speech, Dr. Gábor Czepek, Parliamentary State Secretary of the Ministry of Energy, emphasised the uncertainty caused throughout Europe by the Russia-Ukraine war, which has now been going on for four years. The wartime environment has a powerful impact not only on political and economic processes, but also on public opinion. He emphasised that there were currently two contrasting approaches to energy policy: one based on ideology and the other focused on competitiveness. He emphasised that energy policy is also a matter of sovereignty, and that a patriotic energy policy puts people at the centre and seeks solutions for the “here and now”.
He explained that European energy prices significantly exceed those of global competitors, while Europe accounts for only a very small proportion of global emissions. He added that the carbon quota system contributes significantly to high energy prices and competitive disadvantage, and emphasised the importance of energy supply security, particularly in the light of the debates surrounding oil transportation.
He said that Hungary had achieved significant results in the field of nuclear energy over the past decade and a half, and that support for nuclear energy was also growing in Europe. He presented the expansion of Hungary’s solar energy capacity, which reached 9,000 megawatts by 2025. He highlighted the importance of developing energy storage, which could increase domestic capacity tenfold by 2028. In closing, he emphasised that, in the coming years, the main directions for Hungarian energy policy could be the review of carbon pricing, support for nuclear energy and infrastructure development.
Dr. Olivér Hortay, director of the Director of the Economic Trends Research Institute of Századvég Foundation, delivered a speech titled “Europe’s economy is in trouble!”, in which he presented the energy-related findings of the survey. The data show that 86% of respondents fear that energy may be too expensive in their country. Olivér Hortay pointed out that, today, an average European household pays 60% more for electricity and 120% more for gas than an American household. One in five households in the European Union faces heating difficulties, and 28% of citizens have been unable to pay their utility bills in the past year due to financial reasons.
The director of the research institute emphasised: “The European Commission’s efforts lack social legitimacy. It pushed through the REPowerEU package and a complete ban on Russian energy sources, and now there is debate about banning nuclear cooperation as well. It is clear that the Commission is very determined, despite the fact that the majority of Europeans reject these measures.”
The survey also highlights that 59% of Europeans find it unacceptable that European industrial companies have to bear several times higher carbon emission costs than their American or Chinese competitors as a result of EU green policy. In addition, the majority of respondents believe that the European Union should restore diplomatic, trade and energy cooperation with Russia, either immediately or after the war ends.
The roundtable discussion on “Geopolitical and Energy Challenges” was moderated by Dr. László Kökény, Senior Consultant to the Energy and Climate Policy Business Unit of the Századvég Foundation. At the beginning of the conversation, he raised the point that energy issues are increasingly becoming political, making it more difficult to discuss solutions from a professional perspective. He asked participants to rank the most important challenges.
According to László András, Member of the European Parliament, the biggest challenge is politics itself. He stated that energy issues are often dealt with on ideological grounds, whereas for Hungary, cheap and secure energy supply is a priority in order to protect the population and the economy. He emphasised that, as a result of the overhead cost reduction policy, Hungarian households are less affected by international energy market shocks, but at the same time the country remains heavily dependent on pipeline systems. The MEP also pointed out that the Ukrainian leadership, headed by Volodymyr Zelensky, is exerting political pressure and using energy issues as a geopolitical tool.
Attila Steiner, State Secretary for Energy at the Ministry of Energy, spoke about how European energy policy is often determined by ideological approaches. He cited the wave of anti-nuclear sentiment following the Fukushima nuclear accident as an example, which he believes led to decisions based on emotion and ideology rather than professional expertise. He said that nuclear energy and fossil fuels are both considered “bad” at the same time, which limits the scope of action for Member States.
In his view, Hungary’s competitive advantage lies precisely in the fact that it is not radically changing its energy strategy but is seeking to strengthen its sovereignty. He emphasised that significant infrastructure developments have taken place since 2010, gas consumption and import dependency have decreased, while the country has become better connected to the networks of neighbouring countries.
With regard to electricity generation, he stressed that Hungary is producing an increasing proportion of its electricity locally, particularly with the help of solar energy. In his opinion, expanding solar panel capacity and family solar panel programmes not only strengthen energy sovereignty, but also complement the overhead cost reduction policy.
Dr. Olivér Hortay, Director of the Economic Trends Research Institute of Századvég Foundation, highlighted two main problems: the carbon tax and the sanctions policy. He believed that these caused a significant competitive disadvantage and artificially increased energy prices.
He distinguished three levels of pressure exerted on Hungary: measures taken by the Ukrainian leadership, such as the Druzhba oil pipeline issue, institutional decision-making in Brussels and coordinated action by certain Member State leaders. He mentioned, as an example, that the disputes between the Croatian government and MOL, the Hungarian oil company, could also be classified in this category. He thinks these steps can be seen as a coordinated political attack, which Hungary should firmly reject.
During the discussion, it was repeatedly mentioned that countries unable to maintain affordable energy prices could find themselves at a competitive disadvantage. András László criticised what he called “dogmatic” green policies, which seek to wean the EU off Russian energy sources, such as oil by 2028, without taking economic realities into account. He said that it is easy to write a wish list in Brussels, but the burden of implementation falls on the Member States. He compared the carbon tax to the migration quota system: in his view, both are centralised, punitive mechanisms that restrict Member States’ scope for action and shift the burden of solving the problem onto them.
Attila Steiner stressed that Hungary’s goal is to build stronger infrastructure and increase self-sufficiency. He believed that energy developments could represent a significant competitive advantage in the long term, particularly in the Central and Eastern European region, where several countries are facing similar challenges.
Dr. Olivér Hortay added that diversification is not a goal in itself if it is not accompanied by strengthening sovereignty and increasing domestic production. He believes that it is difficult to remain competitive under the current direction of EU energy policy.
At the end of the discussion, participants agreed that energy issues are now inseparable from geopolitical dynamics, and that security of supply, affordable energy and the preservation of national sovereignty are the most important priorities for Hungary.
The roundtable discussion titled “EU: From Peace Project to War Alliance?” was led by Zoltán Kiszelly, Director of Political Analysis of Századvég Foundation, and focused on the geopolitical and economic situation in Europe and the analysis of the consequences of war narratives.
Dr. István Balogh, Ambassador of Hungary’s Permanent Representation to NATO, emphasised: Hungary’s primary interest is a pro-peace approach and for Europe to develop its own peace strategy. He said defence investments were important, but stressed that their assessment depends on the strategic goals they serve. With regard to wartime communication, he warned that the way the parties talk about the conflict is also part of the conflict, and that excessive escalatory rhetoric carries risks. The speakers agreed with his statement that the current situation in Europe raises serious strategic, economic, and social concerns.
Dr. Miklós Szánthó, lawyer and Director General of the Center for Fundamental Rights, believes that Brussels is pursuing a course that runs counter to Europe’s medium- and long-term interests on several issues. He said that the three former pillars of the European welfare model, i.e., cheap Russian energy, cheap and skilled workforce and US support, have now weakened, posing a fundamental strategic challenge. He emphasised the role of social and media discourse, drawing parallels with previous European crises that escalated into world wars. In his opinion, war psychology and emotional involvement strongly influence political decisions, and the war machine has become self-propelling, which is the key to the survival of the current Brussels and Ukrainian elites. He emphasised that the war is due to Russian aggression, but in reality it is a conflict between two Slavic peoples, which has nothing to do with us.
Balázs Hidvéghi, Deputy Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office, pointed out that the EU’s current political approach is often based on assumptions, while Europe’s industrial and energy situation is vulnerable. He highlighted the problem of energy dependence and raw material shortages, as well as the risk of China becoming a dominant player in certain technology sectors, such as electric vehicles. He warned that its geopolitical location makes Central Europe particularly sensitive to changes in security policy, but that it is also a legitimate option for Member States to seek strategic paths that differ from the mainstream.
