April results of the household and corporate prosperity surveys
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European […]
Public opinion says Hungary would be worse off if Ukraine had the chance to join the EU sooner
On 1 April, the EU flagship initiative, the “Ukraine2EU” project, was officially launched to help Ukraine successfully complete the EU accession process and prepare for EU membership. Denmark, Lithuania and Sweden are also co-funding the project, which will provide strategic guidance and expertise to help Ukraine prepare for EU membership. In the wake of these developments, […]
Consumption growth is a major contributor to Hungary’s GDP growth this year as well
According to the model calculation of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, we expect slightly lower growth in 2025 compared to our December 2024 forecast. We have revised our growth expectation from 2.6% to 2.3%, mainly due to a higher-than-expected inflation environment and a weak external environment. Inflation could peak above 5.0% in Q1 2025 and then again approach the upper […]
The Hungarian economy remained below its historical trend
At its February meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council left the base rate in place since September. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%. In November, retail sales increased by 0.1% year on year in terms of both raw and calendar-adjusted data. Within this, compared to the same period of the previous year, […]
Migration to Europe in 2024 – Main routes and trends
The latest Frontex figures show that there were 221,625 illegal border crossings into Europe in 2024. Illegal migrants used the five routes that have emerged in recent years (Western Balkan, Eastern Mediterranean, Central Mediterranean, Western Mediterranean and West African) with varying degrees of intensity. Despite the European economic crisis and the lack of incentives for […]
Households’ sense of prosperity improved in March
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty caused by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, and energy […]
71% of Hungarians oppose Ukraine’s accession to the European Union
Ukraine’s EU membership has been a central topic of public discourse in both Hungary and Europe, with many political actors expressing their views, arguing against or for it. At the EU summit on 20 March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoed a joint declaration on Ukraine, which, in addition to continuing the policy of war sanctions and […]
The costs of the Russia-Ukraine war and Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the EU for Hungary
Costs of the war in Ukraine so far The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has negatively affected the Hungarian economy in three main areas. As a result of the costs associated with gas imports, the Hungarian economy incurred extra expenditure of HUF 6,386.3 billion as “war surcharge”. As a result of geopolitical risks and inflation shocks, the […]
The Hungarian economy
is moving closer to its historical trend
At its January meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council left the base rate in place since September, slowing monetary easing. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%. In November, retail sales increased by 4.1% year on year in terms of both raw and calendar-adjusted data. Within this, compared to the same period of […]
The German economy falls short of expectations again and again
Analysts at Századvég’s Economic Trends Research Institute have examined how accurately had forecasts for the German economy described GDP change over the past 10 years. The heat map below shows the gap between estimates for the growth of the German economy and actual GDP growth over the period 2015-2024. The institutes that issued the forecasts were […]
Businesses’ sense of prosperity improved slightly in February
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty caused by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, and energy […]
The hidden cost of war: Climate damage during the Russia-Ukraine war
While not a day goes by without news of the devastating consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, in addition to the immeasurable direct damage to human life and property, it may also be worth looking more deeply at the indirect, environmental impact of the war. Shocking footage of destroyed settlements and fighting may lead many to […]
The 2024 Magdeburg car attack: terrorist profile, background and system failures
The 2024 Magdeburg car attack, in which a terrorist drove a vehicle into the crowd at the Magdeburg Christmas market on 20 December 2024, killing five people and injuring at least 235 others, reignited the debate on the links between migration and terrorism. The profile of the terrorist and the circumstances of the attack divided […]
Századvég held a conference on social groups in Hungary between 2019 and 2024
In her welcome speech, Kinga Kenyeres, Director General of the Századvég Foundation, said that the aim of the recent research on social groups is to enable a wider academic and interested audience to learn about the social processes taking place. She also stressed that such a paper could be important for decision-makers as well, as […]
The Hungarian economy has strengthened, almost reaching the level of the historical trend
At its December meeting, the Monetary Council of the central bank left the base rate unchanged from the previous month, slowing monetary easing. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%. In October, retail sales increased by 3.6% year on year in terms of both raw and calendar-adjusted data. Within this, compared to the […]
Businesses’ sense of prosperity improved significantly in January
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty caused by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, and energy […]
Hungarians say it is a mistake for the EU to replace Russian gas with more expensive US gas
Brussels would completely cut off the European Union from Russian piped gas and at the same time increase the purchase of US liquefied natural gas. The majority of Hungarians think that this is unacceptable and that it would be better to diversify procurement, according to a Századvég survey. Just one day after the 2024 US […]
Gulf, Canadian and Australian sponsorship schemes and their applicability in the European Union
Introduction Sponsorship is the legal process of importing foreign workers, subject to specific rules and restrictions. The Gulf countries have been the main adopters of this for more than fifty years. Similar legal instruments are used by other countries, such as Canada and Australia. The functioning of sponsorship schemes in different countries and their experiences provide […]
