In the January survey, the biggest positive shift for households was in job stability. Among companies, expectations regarding the future performance of the Hungarian economy represented the most significant positive change.
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. A major improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
All four sub-indices of the household prosperity index strengthened in January compared to the previous month. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, with an improvement from -0.4 in the previous month to -3.3. In January, perceptions of the economic environment improved from -17.2 in the previous month to -13.6, while the inflation perception sub-index improved from -50.1 to -46.3, and the sub-index measuring the perception of one’s financial situation also improved, from -7.3 to -3.3.
The January 2026 household prosperity survey found a significant (trend-like) positive shift in households’ perception of job stability.
When asked, “Are you worried that either you or a family member will lose their job in the next 6 months?”, respondents gave much more positive responses in January than in December. 47.8% of respondents (up from 44.2% last month) are not afraid of it at all, while 26.5% (5.4 percentage points) are rather not afraid of it. 17.8% of respondents (-5.4 percentage points) were rather afraid of it, while 7.4% (-3.1 percentage points) were very afraid of it.
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by educational attainment, we see an improvement in three of the four categories. Those with at most primary school education showed a decline of 0.4 index points, those with vocational school or vocational school leaving certificate showed a decline of 2.2 index points, those with secondary school leaving certificate showed a decline of 6.2 index points, while those with college or university degrees showed an improvement of 6.4 index points. Thus, those with secondary school leaving certificates show the most positive sense of prosperity (-5.0 index points), while those with vocational school or vocational school leaving certificate show the least positive sense of prosperity (-8.7 index points). The other index values were as follows: -7.0 for those with at most primary school education and -7.6 for those with college or university degrees.
In the December business survey, three sub-indices rose and one fell. The business environment index rose from -15.0 to -13.8, the industry environment index rose from 1.1 to 1.5, and the economic environment sub-index rose from -19.4 to -18.8. Meanwhile, the production environment sub-index fell from -7.1 to -7.9.
Among companies, the most significant positive change in January 2026 was measured in relation to the future development of the Hungarian economy.
In fact, when asked “How do you see the country’s economic situation changing in the next year?”, company executives gave overall much more positive responses in January (+4.3 index points) than in December. 26.2% of companies (+3.9 percentage points) expect a slight improvement in Hungary’s economic performance, while 2.7% (-2.2 percentage points) expect a significant improvement. This month, only 9.0% of companies responded that Hungary’s economic performance would deteriorate significantly in the coming year, down from 11.1% in December. 20.9% (-4.2 percentage points) expect a slight deterioration, while 28.2% (+1.9 percentage points) expect economic performance to remain unchanged.
An analysis of the sectoral breakdown of businesses shows that the sense of prosperity improved on average in two sectors, while it declined in three. This month, industry saw a +3.7-point increase, trade saw a +0.4-point increase, while construction saw a -2.7-point decrease, agriculture saw a -1.8-point decrease, and services saw a -0.3-point decrease in the prosperity index. In January, the best sense of prosperity was measured in industry (-4.5), while the weakest in trade (-13.6).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
