The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
All four sub-indices of the household prosperity index strengthened in comparison to the previous month. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, improving from -6.7 in the previous month to -1.9, while perceptions of the economic environment went from -33.0 to -26.1 in August, and the inflation perception sub-index went from -67.8 to -63.3. Meanwhile, the perception of financial situation also continued to improve from -11.1 to -9.9.
The August 2025 household prosperity survey found a significant positive shift in the perception of the general economic situation compared to July.
When asked, “Overall, do you think things are going in the right or the wrong direction in Hungary today?” respondents gave a much more positive answers in August. The category “things are going definitely in the wrong direction” was selected by 34.8% of respondents (down from 42.1% in July), while 17.8% (0.5 percentage points less than in the previous month) selected the option “things are going rather in the wrong direction”. The response “in some respects good, but in some respects bad” was chosen by 27.1% of respondents, which is a 5.4 percentage point increase compared to the previous month’s share. The response “things are rather going in a good direction” was given by 12.5% (+0.8 percentage points), while the response “things are definitely going in a good direction” was given by 6.9% (+1.0 percentage points).
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by age group, an improvement in all five categories is apparent. We measured a 4.1 index point increase in the 18-29 age group and an outstanding 6.9 index point increase in those aged 60 and over. Furthermore, we detected an improvement of 2.2 index points among 30-39 year olds, another 2.2 index points among 40-49 year olds, and 2.4 index points among 50-59 year olds. Thus, the perceived prosperity is strongest among those aged 60 and over, with an index of -10.8, while it is weakest among 50-59 year olds, whose perceived prosperity stands at -22.3.
The August business survey showed an improvement in all sub-indices. The business environment sub-index improved from -24.5 in the previous month to -22.6, and the business environment sub-index improved from -32.5 to -29.0. Furthermore, the production environment sub-index strengthened from -11.1 to -11.0 index points, while the industrial environment sub-index went from -6.4 to -1.5.
After July 2025, the biggest positive change in August 2025 was businesses’ expectations regarding the EUR/HUF exchange rate.
When asked “What do you think how the EUR/HUF exchange rate will change in the next 1 year?”, business leaders gave overall more positive answers in August than in July. This month, 0.8% of companies expect the forint to strengthen significantly (after 0.5% in June). 12.7% of respondents (+2.9 percentage points) expect the exchange rate to strengthen slightly over the next year. 33.9% (+3.5 percentage points) expect no change in the exchange rate, 37.8% (-4.3 percentage points) expect a slight weakening, while 7.2% (-1.0 percentage points) expect a significant weakening.
Looking at the breakdown of companies by sector, it can be seen that, on average, the sense of prosperity improved in four and worsened in one. This month, the prosperity index strengthened by +4.4 index points in industry, +3.4 index points in trade, +1.0 index points in services and +0.1 index points in agriculture. At the same time, construction saw a drop of 1.8 index points. In August, the strongest sense of prosperity was recorded for agriculture (-12.8) and the weakest for services (-15.5).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
