The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. Significant improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
One sub-index of the household prosperity index strengthened, while three sub-indices weakened month on month in July 2025. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, although falling from -4.9 in the previous month to -6.7, while perceptions of the economic environment declined from -32.0 to -33.0 in July, and the inflation perception sub-index weakened from -64.6 to -67.8. Meanwhile, the perception of financial situation increased from -12.8 to -11.1.
The July 2025 household prosperity survey found a significant positive shift in households’ perception of their financial situation compared to June.
When asked, “How would you describe your household’s financial situation?”, respondents gave more positive answers in July. The response “we can save a lot” was given by 6.7% of respondents (up from 5.8% in June), while 41.7% said “we can save some, but only a little” (up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month). 38.4% of respondents said that “we are just making ends meet”, which is a 4.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month. 7.5% (-0.9 percentage points) responded that “we are living off our previous savings”, while 3.8% (-2.9 percentage points) said that “we are significantly in debt”.
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by age group, two of the five categories show a strengthening, while three show weakening. We measured a 0.6 index point increase in the 18-29 age group and a 0.8 index point increase in those aged 60 and over. While we detected a decline of 0.6 index points among 30-39 year olds, 2.3 index points among 40-49 year olds, and 2.1 index points among 50-59 year olds. Thus, the perceived prosperity is strongest among 18-29 year olds, with an index of -17.2, while it is weakest among 50-59 year olds, whose perceived prosperity stands at -22.8.
For the business survey, two sub-indices improved, and two deteriorated in July. The business environment sub-index improved from -26.4 in the previous month to -24.5, and the business environment sub-index improved from -32.7 to -32.5. The production environment sub-index weakened from -10.9 to -11.1 index points, while the industrial environment sub-index went from -5.1 to -6.4.
The biggest positive change in July 2025 was businesses’ expectations regarding the EUR/HUF exchange rate.
When asked “What do you think how the EUR/HUF exchange rate will change in the next 1 year?”, business leaders gave overall more positive answers in July than in June. This month, 0.5% of companies expect the forint to strengthen significantly (after 0.6% in June). 9.8% of respondents (+2.1 percentage points) expect the exchange rate to strengthen slightly over the next year. 30.4% (+1.6 percentage points) expect no change in the exchange rate, 42.1% (-4.1 percentage points) expect a slight weakening, while 8.2% (-1.7 percentage points) expect a significant weakening.
Looking at the breakdown of companies by sector, it can be seen that, on average, the sense of prosperity improved in two, stagnated in one and worsened in three. This month, we measured a +3.1 index-point increase in the construction industry and a +0.3 index-point increase in trade. Services stagnated, agriculture fell by -1.9 index points, and industry by -3.3 index points. July saw the strongest sense of prosperity in construction (–11.9), while the weakest was in industry (–19.5).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
