At its March meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Council left the base rate in place since September. The base rate in Hungary therefore remains at 6.5%.
In January, retail sales increased by 4.7% year on year on both a raw and calendar-adjusted basis compared to the respective period of the previous year. Within this, compared to the same period of the previous year, sales increased by 4.7% in specialised and non-specialised food shops and by 5.6% in non-food retailing, while they decreased by 1.9% in automotive fuel retailing.
Measured up to February 2025, the value of the monthly SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides a snapshot of the current state of the Hungarian economy, was -0.0585, almost reaching the historical trend value and thus improving economic growth. Current calculations indicate that the Hungarian economy is still growing below the historical trend, but its growth rate gained momentum in the second half of 2024 and drew closer to the trend value.
The most recent forecast for the other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, a short-term indicator for the future of the Hungarian economy, shows marked volatility. It forecasts a brief period of growth in the first phase, followed by a sudden and temporary slowdown, with an upward trend returning by the end of the short-term forecast period.
In February 2025, consumer prices rose by 5.6% on an annual average basis.
The volume of retail sales increased by 4.7% in January
In January, retail sales increased by 4.7% year on year on both a raw and calendar-adjusted basis compared to the respective period of the previous year.
In January 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 4.7%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 5.6%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 1.9% year on year in January.
In food retailing, sales volumes increased by 5.1% in non-specialised food and beverages shops, while the volume in specialised food, beverage and tobacco stores rose by 3.2%.
In non-food retailing, the volume of mixed range of manufactured goods increased by 6.7%, while the turnover of books, newspapers and stationery fell by 1.6% compared to the same period last year. In non-specialised shops dealing in manufactured goods, turnover in textiles, clothing and footwear shops increased by 4.7%. In addition, sales of second-hand goods also increased, by 2.9%. The sales volume of computers and other specialised goods increased by 0.5%. A similar change was seen for books, computer equipment and other specialised stores, which, after a 6.1% decrease in December, increased again by 0.3%. Other categories showed an overall increase, with the most notable being cosmetics shops, which grew by 7.6%, pharmaceuticals, and pharmaceuticals and medicinal products, which increased by 11.1%.
Overall, the largest growth was in non-specialised food shops, more specifically pharmaceutical and medical goods, where volumes increased by 11.1%. Other categories showed more moderate increases.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
