At its meeting on 27 January, the Monetary Council of the central bank left the base rate unchanged from the level in effect since September last year, meaning that it remains at 6.5%. The upper end of the interest rate corridor remained at 7.5% and the lower end at 5.5%.
In November, retail sales increased by 2.5% year on year on both a raw and calendar-adjusted basis. In November 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 2.6%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 4.6%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 0.7% year on year.
The monthly value of the SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides feedback on the current state of the Hungarian economy, continued to show month-on-month improvement in December 2025. The indicator shows that we have reached the lowest point in terms of growth below the historical trend and that a slow improvement continued. This means that the growth rate of the Hungarian economy is slowly approaching its historical trend rate.
The most recent forecast of the other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, a short-term indicator for the future of the Hungarian economy, projected an unchanged improvement in the growth rate. It already predicts a growth rate exceeding the historical trend for the forecast period between January 2026 and September 2026. However, the forecast foresees a slowdown in economic growth towards the end of the horizon.
In December 2025, consumer prices increased by 3.3% on average—compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month on month. The seasonally adjusted core inflation rate was 4.0% on the same period last year.
In January, the forint appreciated by 0.7% against the euro and by 2.6% against the dollar, while it depreciated by 0.8% against the Swiss franc.
In December 2025, people held 463.1 billion forints more in government securities than at the beginning of 2025
In the government bond market, yields for shorter maturities varied between 2 basis points and 6 basis points on the secondary yield curve in January. This means that the 3-month yield was 6.09%, the 6-month yield was 6.05% and the 1-year yield was 5.97% on 30 January. The 3-year yield fell by 11 basis points to 6.13%. Over the past month, a 19 basis point decline could be observed over the 5-year period. Yields are down 26 basis points over the 10-year horizon and 28 basis points over the 15-year horizon compared to the previous month. These three yields changed, therefore, to 6.23%, 6.53%, and 6.91%, respectively.
On 15 January 2026, the total value of “MÁP Plusz” government securities held by retail investors was HUF 1082.3 billion after a HUF 57.1 billion increase from the HUF 1025.2 billion level in the previous month. In addition, the cumulative value of PMÁP (Prémium Magyar Állampapír, or Premium Hungarian Government Bond) securities was HUF 3,651.4 billion, while the cumulative value of the “Bónusz” Hungarian Government Bonds was HUF 2,075.0 billion. Treasury Savings Bills amounted to HUF 626.8 billion and FixMÁP to HUF 3,746.3 billion. Funds held in “Baby” Bonds amounted to HUF 526.1 billion and funds held in Printed MÁP Plus amounted to HUF 90.1 billion. The retail stock of FixMÁP increased by HUF 179.6 billion, while that of BMÁP increased, by HUF 4.3 billion, compared to the previous month. In addition, PMÁP also showed a significant decline (HUF 94.7 billion). Since autumn 2022, inflation-linked PMÁP bonds have been the most popular government securities among the general public, but according to data disclosed by the Government Debt Management Agency Ltd., FixMÁP bonds took their place in January.
The total stock of government securities held by retail investors stood at HUF 11,726.0 billion at the end of December 2025, up from HUF 11,262.9 billion at the beginning of 2025, meaning that people held HUF 463.1 billion more in government securities than at the beginning of 2025. Compared to the previous month, government securities held by retail investors increased by HUF 206.0 billion.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
