At its meeting on 18 November, the Monetary Council of the central bank left the base rate unchanged from the level in effect since September last year, meaning that it remains at 6.5%. The upper end of the interest rate corridor remained at 7.5% and the lower end at 5.5%.
In September, retail sales rose by 3.4% based on raw data and by 3.0% based on calendar-adjusted data compared to the same period last year.
In September 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 3.1%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 3.5%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 0.6% year on year in September.
The monthly value of the SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides feedback on the current state of the Hungarian economy, showed a slight month-on-month improvement in October 2025. The indicator shows that we have reached the lowest point in terms of growth below the historical trend and that a slow improvement has begun. This means that the growth rate of the Hungarian economy has slowly started to approach its historical trend rate.
The other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, a short-term leading indicator for the Hungarian economy, continued to point to a low point in growth below the historical trend for autumn 2025, but it occurred a month earlier. The indicator forecasts strong improvement after the low point and projects growth above the historical trend until the end of the forecast period.
In October 2025, consumer prices increased by 4.3% on average—compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer prices did not change in a month. The seasonally adjusted core inflation rate was 4.2% on the same period last year.
In November, the forint strengthened by 1.5% against the euro, 1.8% against the Swiss franc and 1.9% against the US dollar.
In September 2025, the annual volume of construction output increased by 17.6% in terms of raw data. Thus, cumulatively, construction output in January-September 2025 exceeded that of January-September 2024 by 1.7%. Both main groups of construction contributed to construction output growth in September 2025. The volume in civil engineering works increased by 17.1% and the volume in buildings by 18.3%. Based on cumulative data for January-September 2025, buildings exceeded the January-September 2024 period by 3.2%, while civil engineering works related to state/municipal investments fell short by 0.5%.
Adjusted for seasonal and working day effects, construction output grew by 16.4% month on month in September 2025. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the output in civil engineering works (70.8%). However, the output in buildings also increased (by 7.1%).
As for the stock of contracts, the stock of new contracts concluded in September 2025 decreased by 43.4% month on month and by 4.8% year on year. By main group of construction, apart from the month-on-month increase in the volume of new contracts for buildings (17.1%), new contracts declined in all other dimensions in September 2025. As a result, the stock of construction contracts at the end of September 2025 decreased month on month (-2.2%) but increased year on year (41.0%). In terms of cumulative stock, the volume of new contracts signed in January-September 2025 was the same as in the cumulative period of January-September 2024. However, the contract volume at the end of January-September 2025 exceeded the cumulative contract volume for January-September 2024 by 40.9%.
The graph below shows the evolution of the stock of construction contracts at the end of the month with a fixed base (monthly average for 2021 = 100.0). The current level (124.2) is the fourth highest value between January 2023 and August 2025.
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
