The activities of the Macroeconomics division are quite broad. We support our clients’ decision-making by providing high-quality analyses, calculations and forecasts. Within the company, we also participate in the professional activities of the other advisory divisions, if those activities are related to macroeconomics.In addition to prosperity surveys based on the classic regular monthly household and business surveys, quarterly macroeconomic forecasts and other analyses, we cover a wide range of topics. In recent years, the division has been involved in development policy, energy, agribusiness and healthcare projects, among others.
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The specialists of the division are able to quantify and forecast processes, quantify the effects of certain measures and events, and study and summarise the complexity of the area under study across several segments. The division is able to combine primary data collection and quantitative analyses and to draw qualitative and quantitative conclusions from them. Another strength of the division is market analysis and the production of analyses (e.g. footprint analysis) that quantify the role of a company, sector or economic area in the economy. Our colleagues are also experts in microeconomics, financial markets and insurance markets. The preparedness of our staff is also supported by our regular quarterly and monthly publications, which keep our team up-to-date on both Hungarian and international economic developments.
Director
Our director has extensive professional knowledge and experience of financial systems. After his university studies, he completed his studies in Switzerland and Austria (one and a half year) with scholarships in corporate finance and banking risk management. After his university years, he worked in banking for four years and learned about the international financial environment.
He has more than 12 years of teaching experience. He teaches the following subjects: international finance, foreign economics, international financing and risk management, international economics. Besides teaching, he has numerous national and international publications. His main research interest is therefore in financial systems (banks and markets).
He joined Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in 2014 as a macroeconomic analyst (mainly in macrofinance), and he has been Head of the Macroeconomic division since 2022.
Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem
Nemzeti Közszolgálati Egyetem
Állatorvostudományi Egyetem
We provide analyses of Hungarian and international financial systems and interconnections upon specific requests from market and governmental clients. In this context, we have prepared analyses for a number of our partners (e.g. the Ministry of Finance, Government Debt Management Agency, Association of Lenders to Businesses). Many factors influence the lending processes and riskiness of the Hungarian banking system and the ability of customers (households and companies) to repay loans. The identification of relevant risk factors and the interpretation of impact assessments are crucial.
Understanding stock market trends, volatile bond and stock prices and foreign currency exchange rates among the challenges of our time. An important feature of our times is that macroeconomic variables, which were considered more static in the past, have become increasingly volatile, similar to stock prices and foreign currency exchange rates. This makes it challenging for regulators to take the right economic policy decisions.
We comment on the most important indicators (published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the MNB, the Government Debt Management Agency and other international organisations), i.e. we provide analysis to the press as soon as they are published, and we also publish them on our website. We consider it important to publish short analyses in the media. The most curated interface is the VG-opinion and VG-blog columns. We also provide monthly forecasts of the most important macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, interest rates) at the request of vg.hu, portolio.hu and Refinitiv.
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering the main topics of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
The division produces quarterly macroeconomic forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables of the Hungarian economy. The forecast is based on a state-of-the-art macroeconomic model, using the latest available data, economic policy decisions and international economic events.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Gross domestic product (volume index) | -0.7 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Household final consumption expenditure (volume index) | -2.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (volume index) | -14.9 | -6.5 | 6.9 | 2.9 |
| Export volume index (based on national accounts) | -0.9 | 0.1 | 10.5 | 7.3 |
| Import volume index (based on national accounts) | -4.3 | -1.1 | 9.8 | 6.2 |
| Balance of international trade in goods (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| Consumer price index (%) | 17.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Central bank base interest rate at the end of the period (%) | 11.4 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Current account balance as a percentage of GDP | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Net lending as a percentage of the GDP | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| ESA balance of public finances as a percentage of GDP | -6.7 | -5.3 | -3.7 | -3.2 |
| Government debt-to-GDP ratio | 73.5 | 73.2 | 73.1 | 72.6 |
Date of publication: 23 September 2024
The Macroeconomic Monitor presents and analyses the most important macroeconomic and financial indicators of the Hungarian economy in a given month. For the Macroeconomic Monitor, we use monthly data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the MNB, the Hungarian Ministry of Finance, the Government Debt Management Agency and Refinitiv. Each month, it includes an international outlook, the current value of our prosperity indicator, SZIGMA, and details of the most interesting economic data of the month.
Analysis of the companies in individual sectors, including a financial breakdown, and a description of the sector’s operating environment.
Preparing estimates and impact assessments based on quantitative household and/or business surveys.
Quantifying the effects of economic policy measures, using statistical methods to produce various estimates.
Forecasts for specific industries.
Quantified sectoral estimates, estimating the impact of certain factors.
Analyses on the financial intermediation system.
Analyses on the development of specific cities or regions.
Macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Hungary, its regions, areas and sectors.
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In addition to the general services mentioned above, you can request a consultation using the contact form below:
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