In the November survey, the most significant positive shift among households was related to Hungary’s future competitiveness, while among businesses, the most notable positive change was the improvement in expectations regarding the forint exchange rate.
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. A major improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
All four sub-indices of the household prosperity index strengthened in November compared to the previous month’s values. The most favorable assessment continues to be that of the employment, which rose from -0.7 in the previous month to 0.0, while the assessment of the economic environment improved from -21.2 in October to -16.5 in November, and the sub-index of inflation perceptions improved from -53.3 to -52.1, and, meanwhile, the assessment of financial conditions also strengthened from -9.1 to -8.0.
The November 2025 household prosperity survey showed a significant positive shift, with Hungary’s expected competitiveness for the coming year now entering positive territory.
When asked, “How do you think Hungary’s competitiveness will develop over the next year?”, respondents gave a significantly more favourable answer in November (+7.5 index points). 9.2% of respondents said they expect Hungary’s competitiveness to improve significantly over the next year, up from 7.9% last month. 29.3% (+5.8 percentage points) expect a slight improvement in competitiveness over the next year. 28.2% (-1.6 percentage points) expect Hungarian competitiveness to remain unchanged, 16.3% (+0.9 percentage points) expect a slight deterioration, while 10.1% (-3.2 percentage points) expect a significant deterioration in Hungarian competitiveness.
When examining households’ sense of prosperity by educational attainment, three out of four categories showed an improvement. We measured an increase of 4.7 index points among those with no more than primary school education, 3.1 index points among those with vocational school or vocational school leaving certificate, and 1.3 index points among those with college or university degrees. However, among those who had completed secondary school, we detected a decline of 0.8 index points in the sense of prosperity. Therefore, the economic sentiment of those with no more than primary school education is currently the most favourable, at -8.7 index points, while the least favourable is that of those who had completed secondary school, for whom we measured an economic sentiment of -13.1 index points in November 2025.
The November corporate survey showed an increase in all four sub-indices. The business environment sub-index improved from -16.2 to -15.8, the economic environment sub-index from -21.3 to -18.4 and the production environment sub-index from -7.9 to -7.0 index points. The industrial environment sub-index strengthened from -0.6 in the previous month to -0.3.
In November 2025, we measured the most significant positive change in businesses’ expectations regarding the forint-euro exchange rate for the coming year.
When asked, “What do you think how the EUR/HUF exchange rate will change in the next 1 year?”, company executives gave significantly more positive responses in November (+6.4 index points) than in their October forecasts. This year, expectations regarding this issue have improved by a total of +33.3 index points. This month, 1.7% of businesses said that the forint exchange rate would strengthen significantly, following 0.9% in October. A slight strengthening is expected by 22.6% of respondents (+4.4 percentage points), while 34.2% of companies surveyed expect exchange rates to remain unchanged (the proportion has not changed compared to the previous month). 26.5% of businesses forecast a slight weakening of the exchange rate (-5.7 percentage points), while 5.3% (+0.0 percentage points) expect a significant weakening of the forint exchange rate.
An analysis of the sectoral breakdown of companies shows that sense of prosperity improved on average in all sectors examined. This month, the prosperity index strengthened by +4.2 index points in construction and agriculture, +0.1 index points in services, +3.7 index points in industry, and +1.9 index points in trade. In November, the best sense of prosperity was measured in agriculture (-4.5), while the weakest in trade (-11.9).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
