According to an EU document, an USD 800 billion plan is being prepared for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The programme does not include funds earmarked for armaments, for which Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said the EU would allocate an additional USD 700 billion. From the total financing package of USD 1,500 billion for the coming years, Hungary would provide HUF 5,652.9 billion in the coming years based on the EU allocation principle, which would represent a burden of HUF 1.4 million per average Hungarian household.

According to a draft leaked on 23 January, Ukraine’s financing needs would be covered by the EU, the US and a number of international organisations and private market players. At the same time, due to the armed conflict, the prospects for attracting private capital are questionable, according to the authors of the document, while the current US administration is clearly opposed to providing financial assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, as things stand, the payment of USD 1,500 billion would fall to the countries of the European Union. According to the distribution formula based on gross national income (GNI) used in the EU’s common budget, Hungary would be required to pay 1.16% of the total amount, or HUF 5,652.9 billion at current exchange rates, in the coming years. This would place a significant burden on Hungary, as this amount corresponds to 6.94% of the country’s annual GDP. The Brussels plan will cost an average Hungarian household HUF 1,386,000. Broken down for a family of four, the amount comes to HUF 2,360,000, which is equivalent to two and a half months’ net income for a family with two average-income earners.

This represents a significant amount at the national economic level: based on the final accounts for the 2024 budget, it is 2.72 times the total annual VAT revenue and 1.56 times the annual interest expenditure. This is clearly evident when compared to public policies that are vital to Hungarians; the amount spent on utility subsidies in 2024 is more than five times (5.75) that amount, but it also exceeds the amount of the Health Fund (which covers health-related expenditures in the budget) by 25%. This shows that the amount allocated by the Commission to Brussels could finance policies that are important to Hungarians, such as overhead cost reductions and the family support system, for years to come.

The draft, which has been made public, also places a significant burden on the core countries of the Union. Based on EU methodology, Germany is likely to be the largest contributor, with EUR 335.7 billion: this exceeds the amount of federal infrastructure investments planned as part of the long-term economic development programme by 12%.