The latest survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató found that households’ economic expectations weakened (by 0.5 index points), while businesses’ economic sentiment remained unchanged from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped to -5.9, while the business index remained unchanged, at -9.8.
The March survey found the largest positive shift among households regarding time spent at work, while among businesses, the most notable positive change was the unusual level of current order stocks.
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. A major improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices. However, recent geopolitical developments (the war in Iran) have significantly altered the energy market environment, giving rise to upward inflationary risks.
Two of the four sub-indices of the household prosperity index strengthened in March relative to the previous month. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, with an improvement from 3.7 in the previous month to 4.7, and the assessment of the financial situation also improved (from -3.6 to -3.2). In March, the perception of the economic environment weakened from -9.1 points in the previous month to -12.5, and the sub-index for inflation perception went from -42.8 to -43.8.
The March 2026 household prosperity survey revealed a substantial positive shift in the amount of time respondents spent at work.
When asked, “On average, how many hours do you work per week? (Assuming you are employed)”, respondents gave a more positive answer in March than they did in February. After last month’s 9.3%, 9.9% of respondents worked 30 hours or fewer per week in March. 62.4% worked between 30 and 45 hours per week, up from 56.3% the previous month. 27.6% worked more than 45 hours a week, down from 33.9% the previous month.
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by age group, three of the five categories show a strengthening. We observed a 0.6-point increase in the prosperity index among those aged 18–29, a 1.1-point increase among those aged 50–59, and a 3.5-point increase among those aged 30–39. Meanwhile, we recorded a 1.4-point decline in the sense of prosperity among those aged 40–49 and a 3.2-point decline among those aged 60 and older. Thus, in March, those aged 60 and over had the most favourable sense of prosperity (-4.2 index points), while those aged 40–49 had the least favourable (−9.1 index points). The other index values were as follows: -5.6 index points among those aged 30–39, -5.7 index points among those aged 18–29 and -5.9 index points among those aged 50–59.
In the March business survey, two sub-indices rose and two fell. The production environment subindex rose from -8.7 to -7.3, while the business environment index rose from -15.2 to -14.8. Meanwhile, the industry environment subindex fell from 2.9 to 1.5, and the economic environment subindex fell from -16.2 to -19.7.
The largest positive change in March 2026 was observed in companies’ current order stocks, which were higher than usual.
When asked, “What is the current order stock level (compared to what is typical for this time of year)?”, company executives in March gave responses that were, on the whole, significantly more positive (+9.6 index points) than those in February. 28.5% of respondents described current order stocks as low, down from 36.0% in February. 57.8% of respondents reported average levels, up from 50.5% in February. 11.0% of the companies surveyed (up from 9.5% in February) consider their current order stocks to be high.
An analysis of the sectoral breakdown of businesses shows that the sense of prosperity improved on average in three sectors in March, while it declined in two. This month, we recorded an increase of 1.1 index points in the sense of prosperity in industry, 0.3 index points in construction and 1.3 index points in services, while we measured a decline of 2.7 index points in trade and 8.3 index points in agriculture. In March, we observed the strongest sense of prosperity in industry (-8.4) and the weakest in agriculture (-12.9).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
