At its meeting on 21 October, the Monetary Council of the central bank left monetary conditions unchanged from September 2024, leaving the base rate to currently stand at 6.5%.
In August, retail sales rose by 1.9% based on raw data and by 2.4% based on calendar-adjusted data compared to the same period last year.
In August 2025, turnover in specialised and non-specialised food shops increased by 2.3%, and the turnover in non-food shops increased by 4.9%. In fuel retailing, sales increased by 2.2% year on year in August.
Measured up to September 2025, the value of the monthly SZIGMA CI indicator, which provides a snapshot of the current state of the Hungarian economy, was -0.7561. This means that the Hungarian economy had been growing below its historical trend. The indicator weakened from the previous month, meaning that the economy’s growth rate is moving away from its historical trend value.
The other indicator, SZIGMA LEAD, which is a short-term leading indicator for the outlook of the Hungarian economy, continued to forecast a trough in growth for the autumn of 2025. This will be followed by a period of strengthening, pushing economic growth above its historical trend in the first months of 2026. Subsequently, until the end of the forecast period, the growth of the Hungarian economy will remain above the trend, although with minor fluctuations.
In September 2025, consumer prices increased by 4.3% on average—compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer prices did not change in a month. The seasonally adjusted core inflation rate was 3.9% on the same period last year.
Expenditure of the Health Security Fund and pensions were higher than a year earlier
By the end of September 2025, pensions amounted to HUF 5,004.3 billion, an increase of 5.1% (HUF 242.0 billion) compared to the same period last year, exceeding the official pension increase of 3.2%. During the same period, the Health Insurance Fund spent HUF 3,675.5 billion, an increase of HUF 304.9 billion, i.e. 9.0%, compared to the base period. Within this, expenditure on curative preventive care, which accounts for more than half of the Fund’s expenditure, increased by 10.3% (HUF 206.3 billion).
The SZIGMA (abbreviation of the Hungarian name “Századvég Index a Gazdasági Momentum Alakulásáról”, in English: Századvég Index of the Development of Economic Momentum) is a simultaneous and preliminary indicator system developed by Századvég for the Hungarian economy.
It is crucial for economic policymakers and analysts to have an accurate picture of the state of the economy, but statistical data are often available with considerable delays. In contrast, the SZIGMA indicators provide information on the economic cycle and the business cycle within 30 days of the reference month, on a monthly basis.
The indicator system consists of two indicators, the SIGMA CI, which summarises the current state of the economy, i.e. information extracted from simultaneous variables, and the SIGMA LEAD, which provides preliminary information on the expected economic trajectory. A positive CI index means that economic growth is above the historical trend, and a negative CI index means that growth is below the historical trend. The SIGMA LEAD indicator provides a short-term forecast for a 9-month period. If the SIGMA LEAD indicator is positive, growth is expected to be above trend in 9 months’ time (i.e. three quarters of a year later), while if it is negative, growth is expected to be below trend in the near future.
