In the February survey, the sharpest positive shift among households was measured in expectations regarding the future exchange rate of the forint against the euro, while among companies, expectations regarding future export growth represented the most significant positive change.
The prosperity index remained in negative territory, determined by the uncertainty generated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the economic sanctions. A major improvement in economic expectations is likely to occur if the war ends, inflation remains in the central bank’s target range (between 2% and 4%), the interest rate environment becomes more favourable, the European economy strengthens, and energy markets sustain low prices.
Three of the four sub-indices of the household prosperity index strengthened in February relative to the previous month. Employment continued to be the most positively assessed, with an improvement from -3.3 in the previous month to -3.7. In February, the perception of the economic environment improved from -13.6 in the previous month to -9.1, while the sub-index indicating inflation perception improved from -46.3 to -42.8. However, the assessment of financial situation became slightly less optimistic, falling from -3.3 to -3.6.
In February 2026, we observed a significant positive shift in the household prosperity survey regarding the future development of the forint-euro exchange rate.
When asked “What do you think how the EUR/HUF exchange rate will change in the next 1 year?”, respondents gave a much more favourable answer (+9.5 index points) in February than in January. After last month’s 3.5%, 4.9% of respondents believe that the forint will strengthen significantly in February, 26.0% (+4.5 percentage points) believe that it will strengthen slightly, and 30.3% (+0.3 percentage points) believe that the forint exchange rate will remain unchanged. 18.9% of respondents (-7.8 percentage points) expect a slight weakening, while 10.3% (-1.4 percentage points) expect a significant weakening of the exchange rate.
Looking at households’ sense of prosperity by educational attainment, we see an improvement in three of the four categories. Those with at most primary school education showed an improvement of 8.0 index points, those with vocational school or vocational school leaving certificate showed an improvement of 1.0 index point, those with secondary school leaving certificate showed a decline of 3.4 index points, while those with college or university degrees showed an improvement of 3.0 index points. As a result, in February, those with at most a primary school education had the most favourable sense of prosperity (1.0 index point) and those with secondary school leaving certificate had the least favourable (-8.4 index points). The other index values were as follows: -7.7 among those with vocational school or vocational school leaving certificate, and -4.6 among those with college or university degrees.
In the February business survey, two sub-indices rose and two fell. The industry environment index rose from 1.5 to 1.9, the economic environment index from -18.8 to -16.2. Meanwhile, the production environment sub-index fell from -7.9 to -8.7, and the business environment indicator fell from -13.8 to -15.2.
In February 2026, we measured the highest positive change in companies’ expectations regarding their future exports.
When asked “How do you expect your company’s exports to develop in the next 1 year?”, in February, business leaders gave significantly more positive responses (+6.8 index points) than in January. 0.1% of companies (-0.7 percentage points) expect a significant decline in exports, 0.9% (-0.2 percentage points) expect a slight decline, while 9.7% (+0.5 percentage points) expect exports to remain unchanged. This month, 3.4% of companies (-0.4 percentage points) expect a slight increase in exports over the next year, while 1.1% (+0.4 percentage points) expect a significant increase.
An analysis of the sectoral breakdown of businesses shows that the sense of prosperity improved on average in two sectors, while it declined in three over February. This month, we measured a decline of 9.0 index points in industry, 1.8 index points in construction, and 0.8 index points in trade, while trade saw an increase of 0.9 index points and agriculture saw an increase of 7.8 index points. In February, the best sense of prosperity was measured in agriculture (-5.4), while the weakest in trade (-10.4).
The purpose of the prosperity survey conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató is to provide information to decision-makers and analysts on current and near-term economic developments. Since August 2019, our Institute has been producing the business and consumer prosperity index on a monthly basis. Our monthly survey asks 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 adult residents about their assessment of the economic situation and their expectations. For the two groups, we ask 29 and 28 questions respectively, covering a wide range of economic life. Among the responses received, positive ones (e.g. expected economic improvement) are given a positive score, while negative ones (expected decrease in employment) are given a negative score. The scores are then averaged and converted to a scale between -100 and +100 to obtain the prosperity indices. Thus, the higher the value of the prosperity indices, the more positive households’ and companies’ perception of the economy is. In addition, for both the household and the business survey, 4 sub-indices are constructed using a subset of the questions to illustrate the evolution of economic sentiment in a particular area.
