Political Analysis

„Our purpose is to understand the deeper structures of the political arrangement and Hungarian society.”

The main objective of the Political Analysis Research Unit of the Századvég Foundation is to rigorously and systematically study political phenomena in Hungary using empirical methods in order to gain reliable knowledge about the political behaviour of Hungarian voters and our political institutions. The main focus of the research unit is not on topical political issues, but on fundamental political and sociological research.

About us

We aim to conduct methodological studies that could improve the accuracy of measurements in political science.

Our tools include questionnaire surveys, experiments, qualitative methods (e.g. focus group studies), case studies, digital data and AI-based methods. Our data-driven analyses can support policymakers and lead to better understanding and awareness of political trends among the general public.

Ádám Stefkovics has been with the Századvég Foundation since 2012, previously he was Head of the Directorate for Public Opinion and Market Research. He holds a Master’s degree in Sociology from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Eötvös Loránd University, where he is currently a PhD candidate. He is also a Research Fellow at the Centre for Social Science Research of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University. His main research interests are political sociology and survey methodology.

Kutatóink

portré 24 czopf áron

Áron Czopf

Research Fellow

Research Institute for Political Thought of Századvég Foundation

portré 24 hidvégi áron

Áron Hidvégi

Vice-Chairman and Deputy Chief Executive Officer

portré 24 bukovics babett

Babett Bukovics

Senior Researcher

Market and Public Research

Balázs Dobos

Director

Innovation and Corporate Sustainability Division

portré 24 rozs bálint

Bálint Rozs

Senior Consultant

Energy and Climate Policy

bauer béla

Béla Bauer PhD

Senior Analyst

Academy

speidl bianka

Bianka Speidl Dr.

Senior Analyst

Center for Political Analysis

portré 24 kollár dávid

Dávid Kollár

Senior Analyst

Research Center

menich dóra

Dóra Menich

Analyst

Education and Culture

portré 24 dallos csaba

Dr. Csaba Dallos

Senior Consultant

Regional Development

portré 24 dr. megadja gábor

Dr. Gábor Megadja

Director of Research Unit

Research Center

portré 24 holovács gabriella

Dr. Gabriella Holovács

Senior Consultant

Economic Development

Dr. Zoltán Béky

Regulatory (codification) lawyer

Századvég Foundation, Media Institute

portré 24 bíró zsolt

Dr. Zsolt Bíró

Senior Expert

Economic Development

portré 24 dr. bogáromi eszter

Eszter Bogáromi Dr.

Associate Director of …

Market and Public Research

portré 24 orbán eszter

Eszter Orbán

Senior Consultant

Digitisation

fűrész gábor

Gábor Fűrész

Chairman of the Board

portré 24 kenyeres kinga

Kinga Kenyeres

Chief Executive Officer

portré 24 dr. kökény lászló

László Kökény Dr.

Senior Advisor

Energy and Climate Advisory

portré 24 zenovitz lili

Lili Zenovitz

Senior Analyst

Market and Public Research

Márton Falusi

Researcher

Research Institute for Political Thought of Századvég Foundation

portré 24 gyorgyovich miklós

Miklós Gyorgyovich

Associate Director

Research Center

portré 24 csete makay mónika

Mónika Makay

Team Leader of Research Unit

Market and Public Research

dr. péntekné simon nikolett

Nikoletta Péntekné Simon Dr.

Analyst

Research Center

portré 24 dr. hortay olivér

Olivér Hortay Dr.

Director, Director of Research Unit

Energy and Climate Advisory, Research Center

portré 24 dr. horváth orsolya

Orsolya Horváth Dr. PhD

Director

Education and Culture

portré 24 koncz péter

Péter Koncz

Medior Analyst

Macroeconomics

portré 24 dr. pillók péter

Péter Pillók Dr.

Director of Research Unit

Research Center

götgényi tamás

Tamás Görgényi

Member of the Board

portré 24 hegedűs tamás

Tamás Hegedűs

Senior Macroeconomic Analyst

Macroeconomics

portré 24 isépy tamás

Tamás Isépy

Director

Macroeconomic Advisory

portré 24 lászló tamás

Tamás László

Senior Analyst

Research Center

századvég

Zoltán Kiszelly

Director

Center for Political Analysis

portré 24 dr. ifj. lomnici zoltán

Zoltán Lomnici Jr Dr.

Lead Expert

Our research activities focus on the following areas

Political behaviour

Political behaviour research is a field that seeks to understand how individuals and groups behave in a political context. This may include the study of voting behaviour, political attitudes, political participation and decision-making processes. Examples of political behaviour research could include the study of how demographic factors such as age or education influence voting patterns.

Political structures and political fragmentation

Research on political structures and fragmentation explores how social and political divisions shape the organisation and functioning of political arrangements. This could include studying the impact of factors such as gender, education or religion on political institutions and processes. Examples of research on political structures and fragmentation include analysing the relationship between income inequality and voter turnout, or how the representation of certain social groups in government affects political outcomes.

Election research

Election research looks at the dynamics and outcomes of elections. This research area could include the study of voters, campaign strategies and the role of the media in shaping election results. Examples of election research include analysing the impact of negative campaigning on voter turnout, or how candidates’ social media use influences public opinion.

Political institutions

Research on political institutions is a field that focuses on the formal and informal structures of government and their functioning. It can cover the study of the design and functioning of legislative bodies, executive agencies and judicial systems, as well as the relationships between these institutions. Examples of research on political institutions include analysing the role of political parties in legislative decision-making, or the influence of interest groups on regulatory agencies.

Globalisation studies

Globalisation studies focus on the growing interconnectedness and interdependence of the world’s political systems and the emergence of global governance structures across national borders. This may include the rise of international organisations and treaties, the growth of transnational social movements, and the growing importance of global norms and values. Examples of political globalisation include the UN’s efforts to coordinate global responses to issues such as human rights, climate change and the role of multinational corporations in shaping national and international policies.

Political communication and media

Political communication and media study the role of different forms of media in shaping political attitudes, behaviour and decision-making. This includes assessing the impact of conventional media, such as newspapers and television, as well as newer forms of digital media, such as social media and online news platforms. Examples of research in political communication and media might include analysing the impact of political advertising on voting patterns, or how political candidates use social media to shape public opinion.

International comparisons

International comparative political science examines political phenomena in different countries and regions of the world to identify similarities, differences and trends. This may include examining the impact of different institutional arrangements, cultural and historical contexts, and economic conditions on policy outcomes. Research in international comparative political science may include, for example, analysing the factors that contribute to the stability or instability of democratic systems in different regions, or how different countries respond to similar policy challenges, such as immigration or climate change.

Legfontosabb tanulmányaink

In recent months, the emerging agricultural strategy of the European Commission, led by the newly elected Ursula von der Leyen, has caused a major stir in Hungary, as it envisages the phasing out of the current area payment scheme for farmers. The importance of this issue is shown by the fact that Hungarian farmers receive around HUF 550 billion in area payments every year, which are used by nearly 160,000 farmers, mostly family farms. The November opinion poll by Századvég investigated how Hungarian farmers feel about Brussels’ planned agricultural policy measures.
Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. In the light of the Q3 GDP data, the outlook for the growth path of the Hungarian economy has deteriorated somewhat. The exchange rate risk, mainly stemming from the geopolitical situation, continues to carry uncertainty about imported inflation. Next year’s growth engine could be consumption, which we expect to grow by 3.3% next year, thanks to the economic action plan and interest payments on government bonds. Investment is expected to grow slightly, while exports are set to expand by 5.6% in 2025.
The governing parties hold a confident lead among the parties, while the disapproval of Péter Magyar has increased significantly over the past month, according to Századvég’s December opinion poll.
According to the December 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 0.4 index points, and business economic expectations weakened by 0.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -16.0, while the business index weakened to -15.2. In the December survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was related to job stability. Businesses’ largest change was in their ability to enforce prices. Although a weaker capacity to raise prices has a negative impact on the business prosperity index through corporate profitability, it is positive for the economy as a whole because of contained inflation.
77% of Hungarians believe that there is a real chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will end the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2025, Századvég’s December survey found. The poll explored public attitudes towards recent developments in the war and the possibilities for peace-building.

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