Press Room

Brussels is considering a new measure to ban Russian energy imports into the European Union. According to Századvég estimates, the missing natural gas volumes would cause prices to double and volatility to increase on European natural gas exchanges, which would further undermine the EU’s competitiveness and increase Hungary’s energy bill by a total of HUF 1,100 billion. With the increased expenses, the overhead cost reduction policy would become unsustainable, and Hungarian families’ heating costs would increase three and a half times the current level, which would mean an average additional expense of nearly half a million forints per year.

According to the April 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations fell by 1.5 index points, while businesses’ economic sentiment deteriorated by 2.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -17.6, while the business index to -17.9. In the April survey, the biggest positive change was in plans for major expenditures among households, while for companies it was profitability, reflecting the larger changes in product prices over the past year.

Macro Monitor – March 2025

According to the calculations of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the Hungarian economy could grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. A number of uncertainties complicate the forecast for this year: first, the exchange rate of the forint and world prices will strongly determine inflation, and second, slower growth in our export markets, notably Germany, could dampen Hungarian exports. In addition, consumption is expected to continue to expand strongly throughout 2025, while investment growth is more likely to contribute to economic growth in the second half of the year.

Macro Monitor – February 2025

According to the March 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, households’ economic expectations improved by 1.4 index points, while business economic sentiment deteriorated by 3.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.1, while the business index weakened to -15.8. In the March survey, the most positive change in household and business sentiment was seen regarding the exchange rate of the forint.

In the first three years of the Russia-Ukraine war, Hungary was hit by costs of around 9,100 billion forints, which amounted to more than 2 million forints per family. Ukraine’s accelerated accession would increase the burden further. The direct costs would be close to 2 thousand billion forints per year, which would amount to almost half a million forints per household. Additional indirect costs, which are difficult to quantify, could be even higher.

Macro Monitor – January 2025

Századvég’s latest analysis compares growth forecasts for the German economy with actual GDP growth. The figures show that Europe’s largest economy has systematically underperformed market expectations since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The European sanctions policy has therefore caused far greater economic damage than anyone had previously expected.

According to the February 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, business economic expectations improved by 0.1 index point, while household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -17.5, while the business index strengthened to -12.8. In the February survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was seen in job stability, while the most negative change was seen in inflation expectations. Businesses’ largest positive change was regarding the future evolution of the forint-euro exchange rate.

Századvég presented its latest research, which aims to explore the impact of recent crises on Hungarian society. The research focused on how crises have affected social stratification, mobility and mental health. The research used a multidimensional approach, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to identify patterns of crisis impacts across different social groups and geographical units, and to explore deeper contexts and narratives.

Macro Monitor – December 2024

According to the January 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment remained broadly stagnant (decreasing by 0.1 index point), and business economic expectations improved significantly, by 2.3 index points, from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -16.1, while the business index strengthened to -12.9. In the January survey, the most positive change in household sentiment is most evident in the future planning of major expenditure. Businesses’ largest change was a marked improvement in their industry outlook.