Press Room

Századvég’s latest party preference survey shows that Fidesz-KDNP continues to lead the rankings of parties.

According to the October 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment weakened by 1.8 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped to -18.6, while the business index strengthened to -15.4. In the October survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding the future of the Hungarian economy, while businesses showed a positive shift in their assessment of product price changes over the past year.

In September 2024, a flood wave unprecedented in almost a decade arrived in our region on the Danube, posing significant challenges for Hungary. In Budapest, the Danube peaked at 829 centimetres, but serious damage was avoided thanks to a nationwide effort involving a significant number of volunteers, as well as the authorities, soldiers and police. Századvég’s October public opinion survey mapped public views on flood protection.

Although the majority of the Hungarian adult population, small and medium-sized enterprises and large companies have digital devices (e.g. smartphones, desktop PCs, laptops) and services (mobile internet, fixed internet subscription) integrating artificial intelligence (AI) solutions, and the majority regularly use AI-based online services, only one in four residential and one in three corporate users claimed to be more or explicitly informed in this field—according to research conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató's Digital Business Unit in the first half of 2024.

Macro Monitor – August 2024

According to the September 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.5 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.9, while the business index weakened to -16.1. In the September survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding larger purchases in the next year. From August to September, the biggest change for business is that they expect their export activities to increase in volume in the future.

While the weight of the Hungarian digital economy in terms of value added (GVA) has stagnated at around 18% of the GVA in the national economy in recent years, its weight in employment has increased by more than a quarter since the previous survey. In total, the digital economy provided direct or indirect livelihoods for around 935,000 employees in 2022, representing 19.9% of the Hungarian workforce in that year. A technology-driven development path could provide a further powerful boost to the Hungarian digital economy, increasing its GVA generation capacity by nearly HUF 1,500 billion by 2030, which would put Hungary among the most technologically advanced countries in the European Union—finds the research conducted in cooperation between Századvég and IVSZ on behalf of the Ministry for National Economy in the summer of 2024.

The number of mobile internet users is growing significantly in Hungary year after year, both among residential and business users, and more and more of them are switching to 5G technology. The social perception of 5G, previously surrounded by many negative beliefs, has also improved significantly in recent years, with users overwhelmingly reporting neutral or positive impressions, according to a survey conducted by the Digital Business Unit of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in the first half of 2024.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 1.7% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, the conditions for growth are fragile, with both downside and upside risks in the Hungarian economy, so caution is warranted when making forecasts. In the global context, external disinflationary developments are working towards lower domestic inflation, but the geopolitical situation may continue to be a key factor. In terms of internal factors, the predominant factors for the Hungarian economy this year are the cautiousness of the household sector, low investment activity and the subdued performance of domestic exports in light of the weakening German manufacturing sector. However, in the period ahead, exports could pick up again as international demand—especially German demand—strengthens, which, combined with improving investment activity, could lead to dynamic GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

Macro Monitor – July 2024

According to the August 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 3.7 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -18.3, while the business index to -15.6. The August survey showed that household sentiment changed most as regards the negative changes in Hungary’s economic situation over the next year. In August, the largest month-on-month change for companies was related to more moderate price changes for their products in the past.

According to the July 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 2.7 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 3.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -14.6, while the business index to -15.3. In the July survey, the main change in households’ perceptions was related to the change in unemployment in Hungary over the past year. In July, the biggest negative change for businesses in one month was related to the future outlook for the Hungarian economy.

In French elections, the Muslim votes refer to the votes of French citizens of Maghrebi (Moroccan, Algerian, Tunisian), Turkish, and West African (primarily from Mali, Senegal, and Guinea) descent. Left-wing politicians, sociologists, and political scientists have long questioned the existence of "Muslim votes," arguing that French Muslims are full-fledged citizens who have the right to vote freely and individually. In recent years, however, the alliance between Muslim communities and the left, known in France as "Islamo-leftism," has become increasingly accepted in both academic analyses and French political debates. This has raised questions such as whom Muslims in France vote for, why they vote that way, and the significance of their votes within the French political system. This Századvég analysis aims to provide answers to these questions in relation to the European migrant issue.

At the European Council summit in Brussels at the end of June, the heads of state and government of the member states proposed the extension of the mandate of Ursula von der Leyen, the current President of the European Commission, and the European Parliament is expected to confirm the German politician's nomination at its inaugural session in the week of July 15. Given these developments, Századvég evaluated and analyzed the activities of Ursula von der Leyen, covering the period from the Commission's assumption of office on December 1, 2019, to December 31, 2023.

Macro Monitor – June 2024

According to the June 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved significantly, by 2.7 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 1.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index strengthened to -12.4. In the June survey, households were particularly positive about the economic outlook for the country over the next year. As regards businesses, the biggest positive change from May to June was in their profit outlook for the next year.

Brussels has called on EU Member States to phase out subsidies on utility rates immediately, even though their abolition would have serious social consequences. The energy crisis is not over, and countries that do not protect their populations from market prices are facing severe energy poverty, according to research by Századvég Europe Project.