Press Room

According to the February 2026 survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, economic expectations of households improved (up +1.4 index points), while the economic sentiment of companies showed a slight positive shift (+0.1 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -5.4, while the business index to -9.8. The last time we measured a more favourable household prosperity index was 47 months ago.

The 2026 survey in Project Europe, like in previous years, aimed to map public attitudes towards the most important public issues affecting our continent. The latest survey goes beyond a wide range of current issues to focus on the perception of European and national identity, the livelihood challenges Europeans face, and the transformation of social and political processes in the wake of a global system change. Among the catalysts for these processes are the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, the assessment of the EU leadership’s performance, and the transformation of Europe’s relationship with the major powers.

In Syria, the past few weeks have seen the new Sunni Arab government’s forces capture most of the territory previously controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north and northeast of the country. In response to military operations against Syrian Kurds, Syrian Arabs and Kurds clashed on European streets in Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom in mid-January. These clashes were the first that clearly erupted because of the new balance of power in Syria and disrupted public order in Europe. Until recently, the radical manifesto of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) mobilised Kurds in Europe, but now the latest military operation in Syria is stirring up emotions. This study describes the background to these clashes, their impact on European migration dynamics, and the risks and challenges they pose to integration.

With social unrest intensifying in Iran and a second war between Israel and Iran becoming increasingly likely, Iran and the Shia-Sunni power struggle in the Middle East have once again become the focus of attention in regional and global politics. The first Iran-Israel war (13-24 June 2025) weakened the Iranian regime but did not threaten its survival, especially its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Iran's second strategic asset, beyond missiles, is the Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, which also survived the 2025 attacks and can continue to play a role in the region’s power struggles. First, we need to understand the divide between Sunnis and Shias, its background and current role in Middle Eastern geopolitics, and how it influences the current power struggles between Shias and Sunnis in the Middle East. In light of this, we will then discuss Iran’s ambitions and who is threatened by Iran's expansion. Lastly, we will examine the possibilities for regime change in Iran. The United States and Israel are not the only countries that support regime change in Iran; countries such as Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Sunni Arab states (the Gulf states, Jordan, and Syria) would also benefit from it. For the United States, a war against Iran or a regime change, if it were to occur, would make the US the only significant player in the region, thereby minimising the influence of the Russian-Chinese axis on oil and Middle East politics.

The Brussels regulation banning Russian oil and gas not only violates EU laws and the sovereignty of Member States but also runs counter to the expectations of Europeans. According to a recent survey by Századvég, the relative majority of EU citizens do not support a total embargo. In Hungary, the rejection rate is 62%.

On 17 February 2026, the Petőfi Literary Museum hosted a conference organised by the Századvég Foundation with the title “What’s the situation? – The West and politics after liberalism”, which focused on the current state of liberalism and the future of the Western political structure.

Macro Monitor - December 2025

More than two-thirds of EU citizens believe that the Community’s global competitiveness is declining. The economic downturn is also affecting households’ daily lives: one-third of Europeans are struggling to make ends meet.

Which politician will not allow Hungary to be dragged into war, and who can preserve peace? Századvég’s February survey sought answers to these questions. The majority (52%) believe that Viktor Orbán would not allow Hungary to be drawn into war and that he would be able to maintain peace. Only 36% assume the same about Péter Magyar. When asked which politician, the prime minister or his challenger, Hungarians consider a risky choice, and which one they are unsure about in terms of what would happen if he led the country, the answer was also clear. 54% of Hungarians consider Péter Magyar a risky choice and do not know what direction he would take the country in. Only 39% of people see Viktor Orbán’s political direction as risky.

Brussels’ misguided sanctions and high carbon taxes have pushed up energy prices on the market, which have been passed on to residential consumers in most Member States. Higher utility costs are causing serious livelihood challenges for a lot of households: right now, one-fifth of Europeans are having trouble paying their heating bills, and more than a quarter are having trouble paying their bills in general. Thanks to the overhead cost reduction policy, Hungarians are the least affected by both indicators.

Brussels imposes the world's highest carbon taxes on EU energy producers, which, combined with its misguided sanctions policy, doubles European prices compared to industrial electricity prices in the US and China. In 2024, an EU power plant had to pay three times as much per ton of carbon dioxide emitted as an American power plant and five times as much as a Chinese energy company. By early 2026, carbon dioxide quotas had broken multi-year records, widening the gap even further.

According to the January 2026 survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, economic expectations of households improved significantly (up +3.8 index points), while the economic sentiment of companies remained virtually unchanged (down 0.2 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -6.8, while the business index weakened to -9.9. The last time we measured a higher prosperity index was in March 2022.

Brussels would admit Ukraine to the EU as early as 2027, before it has fulfilled the accession criteria. According to a recent survey by Századvég, three quarters of EU citizens reject the initiative. Most of them are concerned that the integration of Ukraine would worsen the situation of EU farmers, increase crime, weaken food safety and reduce development funding.

According to an EU document, an USD 800 billion plan is being prepared for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The programme does not include funds earmarked for armaments, for which Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said the EU would allocate an additional USD 700 billion. From the total financing package of USD 1,500 billion for the coming years, Hungary would provide HUF 5,652.9 billion in the coming years based on the EU allocation principle, which would represent a burden of HUF 1.4 million per average Hungarian household.

The Patriots have submitted a motion of no confidence against the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. 53% of Hungarians have an unfavourable opinion of the German politician, so the Hungarian MEPs who do not support the motion are siding with Brussels against Hungarians.

Although the Brussels elite is pushing for an increase in arms shipments and would like to send soldiers to Ukraine, European citizens do not agree with these efforts. A new survey by Századvég shows that 51% of EU citizens reject the former, while 69% reject the latter.

Macro Monitor - November 2025

Macro Monitor - October 2025

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 0.4% in 2025, followed by 2.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. Consumption growth continues to support economic growth, but an increase in investment and a strengthening of external economic conditions are essential to achieve a sustainable growth path in the long term.

Nigeria has reached a critical turning point, the consequences of which are profound not only for West Africa and the Sahel region, but also for European security policy, energy diversification, and migration management. As Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, Nigeria’s internal dynamics (demographic, political and economic) extend far beyond its borders. However, this regional power is under increasing pressure, threatening to destabilise both the country itself and the wider Sahel region, particularly in a region where Western influence has been dramatically reduced in recent years following the geopolitical transformation of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.