Cikkek

Sweden, once a “model humanitarian state”, has now become a victim of its own migration policy: one-third of the population is no longer ethnically Swedish, the country has 59 no-go zones, and, after Albania, it has the highest number of gang-related deaths in Europe. In 2023, the Swedish government was forced to radically change its policy, reducing the number of asylum seekers from 163,000 to 9,000, while offering USD 34,000 in support to those who voluntarily return home.

Macro Monitor - August 2025

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 0.8% in 2025, followed by 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Consumption continues to support economic growth, but stronger external conditions are essential to achieve a sustainable growth path in the long term.

Tisza included Brussels’ goal of banning Russian energy in its programme. The measure would impose heavy costs on all Hungarians, and is therefore rejected by two-thirds of adults. However, the ban divides political camps: while 59% of Tisza voters support it, 96% of Fidesz-KDNP voters reject the move.

According to the September 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations improved significantly (+2.1 index points), while business economic sentiment also strengthened (+0.5 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -13.1, while the business index to -14.6. The September survey found that the most significant positive change for households was an improvement in inflation expectations, while for companies it was a strengthening of investment intentions.

Tisza’s austerity package would cause serious livelihood problems. The party’s measures would radically reduce household incomes while increasing their costs. The average Hungarian’s net income would fall from HUF 475,000 per month to HUF 346,000, i.e. by HUF 129,000.

It has been leaked that if Tisza were to win the election, they would impose severe austerity measures. The party would raise personal income taxes, abolish tax breaks, and ban Russian energy sources. The majority of Hungarians reject all elements of the Tisza package, a survey by Századvég found.

Péter Magyar would deliver on Brussels’ expectations and cut off Hungary from Russian energy sources. The ban would increase the annual electricity and gas bills of an average Hungarian family by HUF 510,000, and those of low-income families by HUF 540,000. More than a million households would not be able to afford it.

Macro Monitor - July 2025

In 2025, the UK once again became Europe’s top migration destination, creating a crisis that compounded the Labour government’s poor performance on security and the economy. Following a discussion of the latest statistics on the rise in illegal immigration, we present the causes, the measures being taken to address them and their likely impact on both the UK and Europe.

The Tisza Party has adopted Brussels’ objective of banning Russian energy sources into its programme. The measure would have serious consequences: Hungary could buy less oil, which would raise the price of petrol to 1,026 forints per litre and diesel to 1,051 forints, according to an estimate by Századvég.

Péter Magyar announced that he would ban Russian oil and gas from Hungary, as requested by Brussels. The measure would increase Hungarian families’ electricity and gas bills by three and a half times the current level. The increase in utility costs would mean an extra cost of more than half a million forints per year for an average household.

According to the August 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations improved significantly (+4.0 index points), while business economic sentiment also strengthened (+1.4 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -15.2, while the business index to -15.1. The August survey found that the most notable positive change for households was an improvement in their economic sentiment, while for companies it was improved expectations regarding the future of the EUR/HUF exchange rate.

Macro Monitor - June 2025

According to the July 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations deteriorated slightly (by 0.4 index point), while business economic sentiment stagnated compared to the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, changed to -19.2, while the business index remained unchanged at -16.5. The July survey found that the most notable positive change for households was an improvement in their financial situation, while for companies it was improved expectations regarding the future of the EUR/HUF exchange rate.

Instead of the unanimity required for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, public opinion in 11 EU Member States opposes the belligerent country’s accelerated accession. The majority of the population in several neighbouring and surrounding countries (Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic) as well as in Germany and France, the two most populous Member States of the European Union, do not support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union as soon as possible, according to the latest results of Századvég’s 2025 Project Europe survey.

Macro Monitor - May 2025

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 1.0% in 2025, followed by 2.6% growth in 2026. The reason for revising our previous forecast downwards is that Q1 production data showed a decline on both an annual and quarterly basis, and the industrial and construction data available for Q2 (covering April) do not yet point to a turnaround. Growth prospects are greatly influenced by the trade war launched by the United States and the conflict between Israel and Iran. Despite growing geopolitical uncertainty and mounting global economic risks, household consumption continues to support domestic GDP growth, which may reach 2.3% in Q4 2025.

According to the June 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations deteriorated (decreasing by 0.8 index point), while business economic sentiment improved by 0.9 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, changed to -18.8, while the business index strengthened to -16.5. The June survey found that the most significant positive change among households was an improvement in inflation expectations, while among companies it was an improvement in expectations regarding future growth in demand for their products and services.