Press Room

In recent months, the emerging agricultural strategy of the European Commission, led by the newly elected Ursula von der Leyen, has caused a major stir in Hungary, as it envisages the phasing out of the current area payment scheme for farmers. The importance of this issue is shown by the fact that Hungarian farmers receive around HUF 550 billion in area payments every year, which are used by nearly 160,000 farmers, mostly family farms. The November opinion poll by Századvég investigated how Hungarian farmers feel about Brussels’ planned agricultural policy measures.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. In the light of the Q3 GDP data, the outlook for the growth path of the Hungarian economy has deteriorated somewhat. The exchange rate risk, mainly stemming from the geopolitical situation, continues to carry uncertainty about imported inflation. Next year’s growth engine could be consumption, which we expect to grow by 3.3% next year, thanks to the economic action plan and interest payments on government bonds. Investment is expected to grow slightly, while exports are set to expand by 5.6% in 2025.

The governing parties hold a confident lead among the parties, while the disapproval of Péter Magyar has increased significantly over the past month, according to Századvég's December opinion poll.

According to the December 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 0.4 index points, and business economic expectations weakened by 0.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -16.0, while the business index weakened to -15.2. In the December survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was related to job stability. Businesses’ largest change was in their ability to enforce prices. Although a weaker capacity to raise prices has a negative impact on the business prosperity index through corporate profitability, it is positive for the economy as a whole because of contained inflation.

77% of Hungarians believe that there is a real chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will end the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2025, Századvég's December survey found. The poll explored public attitudes towards recent developments in the war and the possibilities for peace-building.

Macro Monitor – October 2024

According to the November 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 2.1 index points, and business economic expectations improved by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.5, while the business index to -14.9. In the November survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was towards the future path of inflation. And among businesses, the perception of Hungary’s future competitiveness has improved the most.

The governing parties continue to have the highest social support, according to the November party preference survey by Századvég.

Corporate sustainability and ESG considerations are now not just a “fad”, but a very concrete expectation. Moreover, this affects a wide range of Hungarian businesses through two vital channels: the customers and the financing banks.

Macro Monitor – September 2024

As the upcoming U.S. presidential election draws near, examining how Hungarian society perceives relations and cooperation opportunities with the United States becomes particularly relevant. A comprehensive public opinion survey by Századvég provides unique insights into this issue. The survey results highlight that while Hungarians generally support closer cooperation, they view U.S. cultural influence and international engagement critically. The research also explores how Hungarian public opinion perceives the potential impact of the November 5th U.S. presidential election on bilateral relations.

Századvég’s latest party preference survey shows that Fidesz-KDNP continues to lead the rankings of parties.

According to the October 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment weakened by 1.8 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped to -18.6, while the business index strengthened to -15.4. In the October survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding the future of the Hungarian economy, while businesses showed a positive shift in their assessment of product price changes over the past year.

In September 2024, a flood wave unprecedented in almost a decade arrived in our region on the Danube, posing significant challenges for Hungary. In Budapest, the Danube peaked at 829 centimetres, but serious damage was avoided thanks to a nationwide effort involving a significant number of volunteers, as well as the authorities, soldiers and police. Századvég’s October public opinion survey mapped public views on flood protection.

Although the majority of the Hungarian adult population, small and medium-sized enterprises and large companies have digital devices (e.g. smartphones, desktop PCs, laptops) and services (mobile internet, fixed internet subscription) integrating artificial intelligence (AI) solutions, and the majority regularly use AI-based online services, only one in four residential and one in three corporate users claimed to be more or explicitly informed in this field—according to research conducted by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató's Digital Business Unit in the first half of 2024.

Macro Monitor – August 2024

According to the September 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.5 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.9, while the business index weakened to -16.1. In the September survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding larger purchases in the next year. From August to September, the biggest change for business is that they expect their export activities to increase in volume in the future.

While the weight of the Hungarian digital economy in terms of value added (GVA) has stagnated at around 18% of the GVA in the national economy in recent years, its weight in employment has increased by more than a quarter since the previous survey. In total, the digital economy provided direct or indirect livelihoods for around 935,000 employees in 2022, representing 19.9% of the Hungarian workforce in that year. A technology-driven development path could provide a further powerful boost to the Hungarian digital economy, increasing its GVA generation capacity by nearly HUF 1,500 billion by 2030, which would put Hungary among the most technologically advanced countries in the European Union—finds the research conducted in cooperation between Századvég and IVSZ on behalf of the Ministry for National Economy in the summer of 2024.

The number of mobile internet users is growing significantly in Hungary year after year, both among residential and business users, and more and more of them are switching to 5G technology. The social perception of 5G, previously surrounded by many negative beliefs, has also improved significantly in recent years, with users overwhelmingly reporting neutral or positive impressions, according to a survey conducted by the Digital Business Unit of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató in the first half of 2024.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 1.7% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, the conditions for growth are fragile, with both downside and upside risks in the Hungarian economy, so caution is warranted when making forecasts. In the global context, external disinflationary developments are working towards lower domestic inflation, but the geopolitical situation may continue to be a key factor. In terms of internal factors, the predominant factors for the Hungarian economy this year are the cautiousness of the household sector, low investment activity and the subdued performance of domestic exports in light of the weakening German manufacturing sector. However, in the period ahead, exports could pick up again as international demand—especially German demand—strengthens, which, combined with improving investment activity, could lead to dynamic GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.