economy

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. In the light of the Q3 GDP data, the outlook for the growth path of the Hungarian economy has deteriorated somewhat. The exchange rate risk, mainly stemming from the geopolitical situation, continues to carry uncertainty about imported inflation. Next year’s growth engine could be consumption, which we expect to grow by 3.3% next year, thanks to the economic action plan and interest payments on government bonds. Investment is expected to grow slightly, while exports are set to expand by 5.6% in 2025.

According to the December 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 0.4 index points, and business economic expectations weakened by 0.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -16.0, while the business index weakened to -15.2. In the December survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was related to job stability. Businesses’ largest change was in their ability to enforce prices. Although a weaker capacity to raise prices has a negative impact on the business prosperity index through corporate profitability, it is positive for the economy as a whole because of contained inflation.

Macro Monitor – October 2024

According to the November 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 2.1 index points, and business economic expectations improved by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.5, while the business index to -14.9. In the November survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was towards the future path of inflation. And among businesses, the perception of Hungary’s future competitiveness has improved the most.

Macro Monitor – September 2024

According to the October 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment weakened by 1.8 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped to -18.6, while the business index strengthened to -15.4. In the October survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding the future of the Hungarian economy, while businesses showed a positive shift in their assessment of product price changes over the past year.

Macro Monitor – August 2024

According to the September 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.5 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.9, while the business index weakened to -16.1. In the September survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding larger purchases in the next year. From August to September, the biggest change for business is that they expect their export activities to increase in volume in the future.

While the weight of the Hungarian digital economy in terms of value added (GVA) has stagnated at around 18% of the GVA in the national economy in recent years, its weight in employment has increased by more than a quarter since the previous survey. In total, the digital economy provided direct or indirect livelihoods for around 935,000 employees in 2022, representing 19.9% of the Hungarian workforce in that year. A technology-driven development path could provide a further powerful boost to the Hungarian digital economy, increasing its GVA generation capacity by nearly HUF 1,500 billion by 2030, which would put Hungary among the most technologically advanced countries in the European Union—finds the research conducted in cooperation between Századvég and IVSZ on behalf of the Ministry for National Economy in the summer of 2024.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 1.7% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, the conditions for growth are fragile, with both downside and upside risks in the Hungarian economy, so caution is warranted when making forecasts. In the global context, external disinflationary developments are working towards lower domestic inflation, but the geopolitical situation may continue to be a key factor. In terms of internal factors, the predominant factors for the Hungarian economy this year are the cautiousness of the household sector, low investment activity and the subdued performance of domestic exports in light of the weakening German manufacturing sector. However, in the period ahead, exports could pick up again as international demand—especially German demand—strengthens, which, combined with improving investment activity, could lead to dynamic GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

Macro Monitor – July 2024

According to the August 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 3.7 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -18.3, while the business index to -15.6. The August survey showed that household sentiment changed most as regards the negative changes in Hungary’s economic situation over the next year. In August, the largest month-on-month change for companies was related to more moderate price changes for their products in the past.

According to the July 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 2.7 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 3.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -14.6, while the business index to -15.3. In the July survey, the main change in households’ perceptions was related to the change in unemployment in Hungary over the past year. In July, the biggest negative change for businesses in one month was related to the future outlook for the Hungarian economy.

Macro Monitor – June 2024

According to the June 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved significantly, by 2.7 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 1.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index strengthened to -12.4. In the June survey, households were particularly positive about the economic outlook for the country over the next year. As regards businesses, the biggest positive change from May to June was in their profit outlook for the next year.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 2.7% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. However, growth conditions are fragile, so it may be worth taking a cautious view of economic expectations for the coming years. Looking at global trends, reducing prices of energy carriers and external disinflationary developments point to a further moderation in Hungarian inflation. Regarding Hungarian exports, the output gap in the euro area could close at the end of 2025, which could be supportive for Hungarian exports, but deteriorating growth prospects in the euro area could also have an impact in Hungary.

Macro Monitor - May 2024

Political messages in recent months clearly show that the defence industry is on the verge of a quantum leap, both across Europe and at EU level. As a first step in this process, on 5 March 2024, the European Commission, in a joint declaration with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, published the first European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), which sets out the Commission's long-term vision for the management of defence industrial issues at EU level, the role of the EU institutions and the room for manoeuvre of the Member States up to 2035.

The circular economy, which has so far been understood primarily in the context of sustainability and climate protection, is increasingly becoming integrated into the efficiency and competitiveness considerations of national economies and businesses, making the extent to which the relevant actors apply digital solutions a critical factor, revealed the research project of the Digital Business Unit of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató at the end of 2023.

According to the May 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.9 index points, while business economic expectations deteriorated by 1.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -14.5, while the business index weakened to -13.5. The May survey shows that households’ perception of their own financial situation has improved significantly. Meanwhile, the largest positive change from April to May was measured in terms of the reduction in the price increases of businesses over the past year.