economy

According to the June 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved significantly, by 2.7 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 1.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index strengthened to -12.4. In the June survey, households were particularly positive about the economic outlook for the country over the next year. As regards businesses, the biggest positive change from May to June was in their profit outlook for the next year.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 2.7% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. However, growth conditions are fragile, so it may be worth taking a cautious view of economic expectations for the coming years. Looking at global trends, reducing prices of energy carriers and external disinflationary developments point to a further moderation in Hungarian inflation. Regarding Hungarian exports, the output gap in the euro area could close at the end of 2025, which could be supportive for Hungarian exports, but deteriorating growth prospects in the euro area could also have an impact in Hungary.

Macro Monitor - May 2024

The circular economy, which has so far been understood primarily in the context of sustainability and climate protection, is increasingly becoming integrated into the efficiency and competitiveness considerations of national economies and businesses, making the extent to which the relevant actors apply digital solutions a critical factor, revealed the research project of the Digital Business Unit of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató at the end of 2023.

According to the May 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.9 index points, while business economic expectations deteriorated by 1.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -14.5, while the business index weakened to -13.5. The May survey shows that households’ perception of their own financial situation has improved significantly. Meanwhile, the largest positive change from April to May was measured in terms of the reduction in the price increases of businesses over the past year.

Most European citizens disagree with Brussels’ efforts to relax environmental and import regulations on Ukrainian produce, Századvég’s Project Europe research shows.

Századvég has been conducting international public opinion surveys since 2016 to examine the views of European citizens on the issues that most affect the future of the EU. The aim of the 2024 survey of the unique Project Europe survey series was to map public attitudes on the most important public issues affecting our continent. The main topics of research are issues related to the Russia-Ukraine war and the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas. Topics will also include, among others, the sense of prosperity in society, perceptions of the European Union’s activities, energy price developments and energy policy, media, religious affiliation and attitudes to migration. The results of the survey were presented on 7 May 2024 at the Europe in the Shadow of War conference, held in the Várkert Bazár with the participation of several renowned professionals and public figures.

Macro Monitor - April 2024

According to the April 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.6 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -16.4, while the business index strengthened to -12.2. A marked positive change in the April survey is that households’ inflation perceptions are steadily converging towards the actual rate, which is now within the central bank’s inflation target range. For businesses, the biggest positive change from March to April was in profits over the past year.

Macro Monitor – March 2024

In 2023, the volume of Hungarian gross domestic product (GDP) fell slightly by 0.7%, while growth is likely to remain subdued in the following years. We expect Hungarian economic output to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. This year and next will be marked by a slow recovery process.

According to the March 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.9 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -14.8, while the business index to -12.9. The March survey shows a marked positive change in that households are less worried about job losses in the next six months than a month earlier. In the business sector, the largest negative change from February to March was in expectations for future exchange rate movements.

Macro Monitor – February 2024

An overwhelming majority (87%) of Hungarian consumers think that it is fundamentally positive when a product is Hungarian: they prefer Hungarian goods, and this is encouraging news for Hungarian businesses. Detailed data in the October 2023 survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató show that Hungarian consumers have a significantly higher preference for domestic products when buying food than when buying other products.

According to the February 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.0 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 0.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -12.9, while the business index to -11.8. A marked positive change seen in the February survey is that people have revised down their expectations for future inflation. At the same time, the biggest change for companies, from January to February, was the change in the price of their products over the past year.

Macro Monitor – January 2024

According to the January 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.3 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index weakened to -11.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 18.0 index points and the corporate index by 10.2 index points. The January survey showed a marked positive change, with households saying they had bought more goods and services in the past year than a year earlier. And companies were positive about their future investment plans.

The Hungarian economy grew by 4.6% in 2022. Data from the first three quarters of 2023 suggest no economic growth: Századvég Konjunktúrakutató forecasts that the Hungarian economy may shrink by 0.7% in 2023. We expect growth to be 2.7% and 3.1% in the next two years, which implies an overall slow pick-up after this year’s economic downturn.

According to the December 2023 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.7 index points and business economic expectations by 1.9 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -15.2, while the business index strengthened to -10.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon as well: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 14.7 index points and the corporate index by 11.2 index points. The December survey reveals the biggest positive shift in households’ inflation expectations, while businesses were most positive about the country’s overall economic situation over the past year.

Nearly three quarters (72%) of Hungarians are against Ukraine joining the European Union as soon as possible, according to the latest Századvég poll. The rejection of Ukraine’s EU accession has been growing month by month since September 2023.