economy

The negotiations with Iran, as well as the prospect of war or peace between the United States and Israel on the one side and Iran on the other, raise the question of what motivates Iran and its strategy. The possibility that this conflict could turn into a protracted war could influence the outcome of the upcoming elections in the United States and Israel (in favour of the opposition), not to mention the serious consequences for the global economy. This study examines in detail what motivates Iran and its strategy, both domestically and internationally. In addition, we will review possible scenarios for negotiations with Iran in the near future.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 1.5% in 2026, followed by 2.6% growth in 2027. The primary reason for revising downwards the growth outlook is the war that has since broken out in the Middle East, which has a slowing effect on the global economy due to increased international vulnerability and the disruption of some shipping routes. The two-week ceasefire announced on 8 April 2026 could mitigate the negative risks stemming from the war in Iran, the biggest source of uncertainty, which immediately caused oil prices to fall and also gives cause for further optimism. Consumption growth continues to fuel economic growth; however, a stronger external economic environment and a rise in investments are essential for growth to remain sustainable in the long term.

In March, companies’ and households’ sense of prosperity changed slightly.

In response to the oil blockade by Ukraine and the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran, the Hungarian government has introduced price caps on fuels. A recent survey by Századvég shows that 67% of the adult population support the measure.

Macro Monitor - January 2026

Germany is the largest economy in the European Union, so its economic performance has a significant impact on the entire community, including Hungary. Consequently, for future macroeconomic forecasts to be sufficiently well-founded, whether for Hungary or the EU, it is worth examining how the models worked in the past. The latest analysis by Századvég’s Economic Trends Research Institute compares forecasts for German economic growth with actual GDP data available as of 30 January 2026. The results show that Europe’s largest economy has consistently underperformed market expectations, while the excessive optimism in forecasts has continued to grow compared to the previous year. The structural challenges facing Germany, particularly high energy prices and the decline in manufacturing capacity, have proven to be much more persistent than forecasters had assumed a year ago.

The proportion of people opposed to nuclear power plants has fallen to a third, while the number of supporters has more than doubled in ten years in the European Union. The most pro-nuclear Member State is Hungary, where 75% support the technology, 22% accept it, and only 3% oppose it.

According to the February 2026 survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, economic expectations of households improved (up +1.4 index points), while the economic sentiment of companies showed a slight positive shift (+0.1 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -5.4, while the business index to -9.8. The last time we measured a more favourable household prosperity index was 47 months ago.

The 2026 survey in Project Europe, like in previous years, aimed to map public attitudes towards the most important public issues affecting our continent. The latest survey goes beyond a wide range of current issues to focus on the perception of European and national identity, the livelihood challenges Europeans face, and the transformation of social and political processes in the wake of a global system change. Among the catalysts for these processes are the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, the assessment of the EU leadership’s performance, and the transformation of Europe’s relationship with the major powers.

The Brussels regulation banning Russian oil and gas not only violates EU laws and the sovereignty of Member States but also runs counter to the expectations of Europeans. According to a recent survey by Századvég, the relative majority of EU citizens do not support a total embargo. In Hungary, the rejection rate is 62%.

Macro Monitor - December 2025

More than two-thirds of EU citizens believe that the Community’s global competitiveness is declining. The economic downturn is also affecting households’ daily lives: one-third of Europeans are struggling to make ends meet.

Which politician will not allow Hungary to be dragged into war, and who can preserve peace? Századvég’s February survey sought answers to these questions. The majority (52%) believe that Viktor Orbán would not allow Hungary to be drawn into war and that he would be able to maintain peace. Only 36% assume the same about Péter Magyar. When asked which politician, the prime minister or his challenger, Hungarians consider a risky choice, and which one they are unsure about in terms of what would happen if he led the country, the answer was also clear. 54% of Hungarians consider Péter Magyar a risky choice and do not know what direction he would take the country in. Only 39% of people see Viktor Orbán’s political direction as risky.

According to the January 2026 survey by Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, economic expectations of households improved significantly (up +3.8 index points), while the economic sentiment of companies remained virtually unchanged (down 0.2 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -6.8, while the business index weakened to -9.9. The last time we measured a higher prosperity index was in March 2022.

Brussels would admit Ukraine to the EU as early as 2027, before it has fulfilled the accession criteria. According to a recent survey by Századvég, three quarters of EU citizens reject the initiative. Most of them are concerned that the integration of Ukraine would worsen the situation of EU farmers, increase crime, weaken food safety and reduce development funding.

Although the Brussels elite is pushing for an increase in arms shipments and would like to send soldiers to Ukraine, European citizens do not agree with these efforts. A new survey by Századvég shows that 51% of EU citizens reject the former, while 69% reject the latter.

Macro Monitor - November 2025

Macro Monitor - October 2025

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 0.4% in 2025, followed by 2.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. Consumption growth continues to support economic growth, but an increase in investment and a strengthening of external economic conditions are essential to achieve a sustainable growth path in the long term.