inflation

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. In the light of the Q3 GDP data, the outlook for the growth path of the Hungarian economy has deteriorated somewhat. The exchange rate risk, mainly stemming from the geopolitical situation, continues to carry uncertainty about imported inflation. Next year’s growth engine could be consumption, which we expect to grow by 3.3% next year, thanks to the economic action plan and interest payments on government bonds. Investment is expected to grow slightly, while exports are set to expand by 5.6% in 2025.

According to the December 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 0.4 index points, and business economic expectations weakened by 0.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -16.0, while the business index weakened to -15.2. In the December survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was related to job stability. Businesses’ largest change was in their ability to enforce prices. Although a weaker capacity to raise prices has a negative impact on the business prosperity index through corporate profitability, it is positive for the economy as a whole because of contained inflation.

Macro Monitor – October 2024

According to the November 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 2.1 index points, and business economic expectations improved by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.5, while the business index to -14.9. In the November survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was towards the future path of inflation. And among businesses, the perception of Hungary’s future competitiveness has improved the most.

Macro Monitor – September 2024

According to the October 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment weakened by 1.8 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped to -18.6, while the business index strengthened to -15.4. In the October survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding the future of the Hungarian economy, while businesses showed a positive shift in their assessment of product price changes over the past year.

Macro Monitor – August 2024

According to the September 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.5 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.9, while the business index weakened to -16.1. In the September survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding larger purchases in the next year. From August to September, the biggest change for business is that they expect their export activities to increase in volume in the future.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 1.7% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, the conditions for growth are fragile, with both downside and upside risks in the Hungarian economy, so caution is warranted when making forecasts. In the global context, external disinflationary developments are working towards lower domestic inflation, but the geopolitical situation may continue to be a key factor. In terms of internal factors, the predominant factors for the Hungarian economy this year are the cautiousness of the household sector, low investment activity and the subdued performance of domestic exports in light of the weakening German manufacturing sector. However, in the period ahead, exports could pick up again as international demand—especially German demand—strengthens, which, combined with improving investment activity, could lead to dynamic GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

Macro Monitor – July 2024

Macro Monitor – June 2024

Macro Monitor – March 2024

In 2023, the volume of Hungarian gross domestic product (GDP) fell slightly by 0.7%, while growth is likely to remain subdued in the following years. We expect Hungarian economic output to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. This year and next will be marked by a slow recovery process.

According to the March 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.9 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -14.8, while the business index to -12.9. The March survey shows a marked positive change in that households are less worried about job losses in the next six months than a month earlier. In the business sector, the largest negative change from February to March was in expectations for future exchange rate movements.

Macro Monitor – February 2024

Macro Monitor – January 2024

According to the January 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 3.3 index points, while business economic expectations decreased by 1.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -11.9, while the business index weakened to -11.7. The indices show a significant improvement over a longer horizon: compared to December 2022, the household index increased by 18.0 index points and the corporate index by 10.2 index points. The January survey showed a marked positive change, with households saying they had bought more goods and services in the past year than a year earlier. And companies were positive about their future investment plans.