inflation

According to the April 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations fell by 1.5 index points, while businesses’ economic sentiment deteriorated by 2.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -17.6, while the business index to -17.9. In the April survey, the biggest positive change was in plans for major expenditures among households, while for companies it was profitability, reflecting the larger changes in product prices over the past year.

According to the calculations of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the Hungarian economy could grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. A number of uncertainties complicate the forecast for this year: first, the exchange rate of the forint and world prices will strongly determine inflation, and second, slower growth in our export markets, notably Germany, could dampen Hungarian exports. In addition, consumption is expected to continue to expand strongly throughout 2025, while investment growth is more likely to contribute to economic growth in the second half of the year.

Macro Monitor – February 2025

According to the March 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, households’ economic expectations improved by 1.4 index points, while business economic sentiment deteriorated by 3.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.1, while the business index weakened to -15.8. In the March survey, the most positive change in household and business sentiment was seen regarding the exchange rate of the forint.

Macro Monitor – January 2025

According to the February 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, business economic expectations improved by 0.1 index point, while household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -17.5, while the business index strengthened to -12.8. In the February survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was seen in job stability, while the most negative change was seen in inflation expectations. Businesses’ largest positive change was regarding the future evolution of the forint-euro exchange rate.

Macro Monitor – December 2024

According to the January 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment remained broadly stagnant (decreasing by 0.1 index point), and business economic expectations improved significantly, by 2.3 index points, from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -16.1, while the business index strengthened to -12.9. In the January survey, the most positive change in household sentiment is most evident in the future planning of major expenditure. Businesses’ largest change was a marked improvement in their industry outlook.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. In the light of the Q3 GDP data, the outlook for the growth path of the Hungarian economy has deteriorated somewhat. The exchange rate risk, mainly stemming from the geopolitical situation, continues to carry uncertainty about imported inflation. Next year’s growth engine could be consumption, which we expect to grow by 3.3% next year, thanks to the economic action plan and interest payments on government bonds. Investment is expected to grow slightly, while exports are set to expand by 5.6% in 2025.

According to the December 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 0.4 index points, and business economic expectations weakened by 0.2 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -16.0, while the business index weakened to -15.2. In the December survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was related to job stability. Businesses’ largest change was in their ability to enforce prices. Although a weaker capacity to raise prices has a negative impact on the business prosperity index through corporate profitability, it is positive for the economy as a whole because of contained inflation.

Macro Monitor – October 2024

According to the November 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment strengthened by 2.1 index points, and business economic expectations improved by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.5, while the business index to -14.9. In the November survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was towards the future path of inflation. And among businesses, the perception of Hungary’s future competitiveness has improved the most.

Macro Monitor – September 2024

According to the October 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment weakened by 1.8 index points, while business economic expectations improved by 0.7 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, dropped to -18.6, while the business index strengthened to -15.4. In the October survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding the future of the Hungarian economy, while businesses showed a positive shift in their assessment of product price changes over the past year.

Macro Monitor – August 2024

According to the September 2024 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic sentiment improved by 1.5 index points, while business economic expectations fell by 0.5 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.9, while the business index weakened to -16.1. In the September survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was regarding larger purchases in the next year. From August to September, the biggest change for business is that they expect their export activities to increase in volume in the future.

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy will grow by 1.7% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, the conditions for growth are fragile, with both downside and upside risks in the Hungarian economy, so caution is warranted when making forecasts. In the global context, external disinflationary developments are working towards lower domestic inflation, but the geopolitical situation may continue to be a key factor. In terms of internal factors, the predominant factors for the Hungarian economy this year are the cautiousness of the household sector, low investment activity and the subdued performance of domestic exports in light of the weakening German manufacturing sector. However, in the period ahead, exports could pick up again as international demand—especially German demand—strengthens, which, combined with improving investment activity, could lead to dynamic GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

Macro Monitor – July 2024

Macro Monitor – June 2024

Macro Monitor – March 2024