inflation

According to the October 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, households’ economic expectations continued to improve slightly (+0.5 index points), while companies’ economic sentiment strengthened significantly (+3.7 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -12.6, while the business index to -10.9. The October survey found that the biggest positive shift among households was in plans for future higher-value spending, while among companies, the strongest positive change was in the general economic sentiment.

Macro Monitor - August 2025

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 0.8% in 2025, followed by 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Consumption continues to support economic growth, but stronger external conditions are essential to achieve a sustainable growth path in the long term.

According to the September 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations improved significantly (+2.1 index points), while business economic sentiment also strengthened (+0.5 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -13.1, while the business index to -14.6. The September survey found that the most significant positive change for households was an improvement in inflation expectations, while for companies it was a strengthening of investment intentions.

Macro Monitor - July 2025

According to the August 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations improved significantly (+4.0 index points), while business economic sentiment also strengthened (+1.4 index points) from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, improved to -15.2, while the business index to -15.1. The August survey found that the most notable positive change for households was an improvement in their economic sentiment, while for companies it was improved expectations regarding the future of the EUR/HUF exchange rate.

Macro Monitor - June 2025

According to the July 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations deteriorated slightly (by 0.4 index point), while business economic sentiment stagnated compared to the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, changed to -19.2, while the business index remained unchanged at -16.5. The July survey found that the most notable positive change for households was an improvement in their financial situation, while for companies it was improved expectations regarding the future of the EUR/HUF exchange rate.

Macro Monitor - May 2025

Századvég Konjunktúrakutató estimates that the Hungarian economy could grow by 1.0% in 2025, followed by 2.6% growth in 2026. The reason for revising our previous forecast downwards is that Q1 production data showed a decline on both an annual and quarterly basis, and the industrial and construction data available for Q2 (covering April) do not yet point to a turnaround. Growth prospects are greatly influenced by the trade war launched by the United States and the conflict between Israel and Iran. Despite growing geopolitical uncertainty and mounting global economic risks, household consumption continues to support domestic GDP growth, which may reach 2.3% in Q4 2025.

According to the June 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations deteriorated (decreasing by 0.8 index point), while business economic sentiment improved by 0.9 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, changed to -18.8, while the business index strengthened to -16.5. The June survey found that the most significant positive change among households was an improvement in inflation expectations, while among companies it was an improvement in expectations regarding future growth in demand for their products and services.

According to the May 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations remained broadly stagnant (decreasing by 0.2 index point), while business economic sentiment improved by 0.6 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, changed to -17.8, while the business index strengthened to -17.3. The May survey found that the most notable positive change for households was an improvement in savings expectations, while for businesses it was easier access to development funding.

Macro Monitor – April 2025

According to the April 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, household economic expectations fell by 1.5 index points, while businesses’ economic sentiment deteriorated by 2.1 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -17.6, while the business index to -17.9. In the April survey, the biggest positive change was in plans for major expenditures among households, while for companies it was profitability, reflecting the larger changes in product prices over the past year.

Macro Monitor – March 2025

According to the calculations of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, the Hungarian economy could grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. A number of uncertainties complicate the forecast for this year: first, the exchange rate of the forint and world prices will strongly determine inflation, and second, slower growth in our export markets, notably Germany, could dampen Hungarian exports. In addition, consumption is expected to continue to expand strongly throughout 2025, while investment growth is more likely to contribute to economic growth in the second half of the year.

Macro Monitor – February 2025

According to the March 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, households’ economic expectations improved by 1.4 index points, while business economic sentiment deteriorated by 3.0 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, strengthened to -16.1, while the business index weakened to -15.8. In the March survey, the most positive change in household and business sentiment was seen regarding the exchange rate of the forint.

Macro Monitor – January 2025

According to the February 2025 survey of Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, business economic expectations improved by 0.1 index point, while household economic sentiment deteriorated by 1.3 index points from the previous month. Thus, the household index, measured on a scale of -100 to +100, weakened to -17.5, while the business index strengthened to -12.8. In the February survey, the most positive change in household sentiment was seen in job stability, while the most negative change was seen in inflation expectations. Businesses’ largest positive change was regarding the future evolution of the forint-euro exchange rate.